034
FXUS01 KWBC 260801
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EDT MON AUG 26 2024
VALID 12Z MON AUG 26 2024 - 12Z WED AUG 28 2024
...A COUPLE OF DAYS OF INTENSE HEAT AND HUMIDITY EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE MIDWEST...
...SEVERE STORMS AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST TODAY AND THE GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY...
...DAILY MONSOONAL THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...
A COUPLE OF DAYS OF INTENSE HEAT AND HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE MIDWEST AS DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW BEHIND AN INTENSIFYING
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH UNLEASHES THE HEAT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID-90S TO NEAR 100 COMBINED WITH HIGH
HUMIDITY WILL SEND HEAT INDICES INTO THE 105-115 DEGREE RANGE,
WITH WIDESPREAD HEAT-RELATED ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS IN PLACE.
MORNING LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN VERY WARM, IN THE MID- TO UPPER 70S,
PROVIDING LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT OVERNIGHT. NUMEROUS
RECORD-TYING/BREAKING HIGHS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH OVER THE MIDWEST
AS WELL AS INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY. THOSE
WITHOUT EFFICIENT AIR-CONDITIONING OR WHO MUST SPEND TIME OR
EFFORT OUTDOORS WILL BE AT A HEIGHTENED RISK OF HEAT-RELATED
ILLNESS. REMEMBER TO DRINK PLENTY OF WATER AND SEEK OUT RELIEF
FROM THE HEAT. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND INCREASED STORM
COVERAGE WILL HELP TO BRING RELIEF TO PORTIONS OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST ON TUESDAY. WHILE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SEE SOME
RELIEF FROM THE RECORD HEAT THAT HAS PLAGUED THE REGION,
CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE HOT WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S.
MEANWHILE, AS UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVES EJECT OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND INTERACT WITH A LOW PRESSURE WAVE TRACKING ALONG A
COUPLE OF FRONTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE HOT TEMPERATURES AND
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG TO
EXTREME INSTABILITY LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IS
FORECASTING AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE WAVE TRACKS JUST TO
THE SOUTH. VERY LARGE HAIL, WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
DAMAGING WINDS WITH ANY ORGANIZED LINES OF STORMS, AND A FEW
TORNADOES WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE. A BROADER SLIGHT RISK COVERS
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS FOR SOME
MORE ISOLATED INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL HELP TO ERODE THE UPPER-HIGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. IN ADDITION
TO SEVERE WEATHER, THE PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND HIGH INSTABILITY
WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF INTENSE DOWNPOURS WHICH COULD ORGANIZE INTO
MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN COVERAGE AT TIMES, LEADING TO THE RISK
OF SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING EACH DAY.
MONSOONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY ARE SHIFTING A BIT EASTWARD
INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS, WITH SIMILAR ACTIVITIES
RETURNING LATER ON TUESDAY. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS REMAIN
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
ESPECIALLY ACROSS TERRAIN-SENSITIVE AREAS ALONG STEEPER
HILLS/MOUNTAIN RANGES AND OVER BURN SCARS. SOME POST-FRONTAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH
THIS EVENING AS WELL. TEMPERATURES OVER PORTIONS OF THE WEST WILL
REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOLLOWING A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER-TROUGH. FORECAST
HIGHS IN THE 70S WILL BE COMMON OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES
AND EASTERN GREAT BASIN. MORE SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN BY TUESDAY WITH HIGHS BACK UP INTO THE 80S. HOWEVER, A COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL DROP HIGHS INTO THE
60S AND 70S ALONG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY MAINLY OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON.
ELSEWHERE, INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
DIPPING INTO NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES
THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SOME MODERATE TO POSSIBLY LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, WITH A SLIGHT
RISK OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOL HERE COMPARED TO ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN U.S.,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOW 80S. DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED OVER FLORIDA AND ALONG THE GULF COAST INTO SOUTH
TEXAS WITH A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE REGION AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW TRACKS WESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS.
KONG/PUTNAM
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