213
FXCA20 KWBC 262016
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
416 PM EDT MON AUG 26 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 26 AUG 2024 AT 20:10 UTC:
THE LARGE SCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS WIDESPREAD UPPER CONVERGENT
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AMERICAS. A KELVIN WAVE IS PROPAGATING
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT ITS IMPACTS ON HIGHLIGHTING DEEP
CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED GIVEN THE PREVAILING ANOMALOUS
CONVERGENCE. MOST ACTIVITY IN THE REGION WILL ORGANIZE WITH
PERTURBATIONS PROPAGATING INT HE TRADES.
AN UPPER TROUGH LIES TO THE WEST OF NORTHWEST MEXICO. ALTHOUGH
THIS IS VENTILATING DIURNAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTH
AMERICAN MONSOON...ADVECTION OF A DRIER AIR MASS IN THE MID-UPPER
TROPOSPHERE WILL YIELD TO A GRADUAL DECREASE IN ACCUMULATION.
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM.
THIS DECREASES TO MAXIMA OF 15-25MM BY WEDNESDAY-EARLY THURSDAY.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS PROPAGATING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MEXICO. THIS WILL
FAVOR MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN GUATEMALA...CHIAPAS...TABASCO AND
SOUTHERN VERACRUZ ON MONDAY. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT ENHANCEMENT OF
DIURNAL CONVECTION TO CLUSTER FROM WEST CHIAPAS INTO NORTHERN
VERACRUZ...CENTRAL MEXICO...MICHOACAN...WHERE EXPECT SIMILAR
MAXIMA. ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT THE WAVE TO FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-40MM
BETWEEN GUERRERO AND WESTERN MICHOACAN AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN
JALISCO/COLIMA.
IN THE CARIBBEAN...A LARGE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS
HISPANIOLA...CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N 74W...FAR NORTHWEST
COLOMBIA. THIS TROUGH IS ENHANCING ROTATION ALONG AN EASTERLY WAVE
THAT IS PROPAGATINC ACROSS THE REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO LOSE ORGANIZATION THROUGH THE CYCLE...BUT THE EASTERLY
WAVE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD YIELDING TO AN
ENHANCEMENT OF DIURNAL CONVECTION IN HONDURAS/EL SALVADOR BY
WEDNESDAY. ON MONDAY EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-40MM IN NORTHERN
COLOMBIA/LAKE MARACAIBO REGION. AS THE PANAMANIAN LOW BECOMES
ENHANCED...ONSHORE SOUTWESTERLY FLOW WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 25-50MM
IN SOUTH COSTA RICA AND MOST OF WESTERN PANAMA. ALSO ON
MONDAY...EXPECT LIGHTER AMOUNTS IN CUBA...THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND
JAMAICA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT
ENHANCEMENT IN WEST PANAMA AND MOST OF COSTA RICA WHERE AMOUNTS
ARE FORECAST IN THE 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM RANGE. IN
WEST CUBA EXPECT MAXIMA GENERALLY NEAR 15MM....AND NEAR 15-25MM IN
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA. ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-40MM IN
HONDURAS/EL SALVADOR AND SOUTHERN GUATEMALA.
EAST ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...TROPICAL WAVE AND A TRADE WIND
SURGE ARE PROPAGATING WESTWARD. MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS ORGANIZING
WITH THE LATTER...WHILE THE TROPICAL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER. AS THESE SYSTEMS
MOVE INTO THE CARIBBEAN...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION IN
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EARLY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...TO FAVOR MAXIMA
OF 15-25MM/DAY BY 12 UTC WEDNESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-30MM IN THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES
AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN PUERTO RICO...VI AND NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL ARRIVE INTO THE GUIANAS ON
TUESDAY TO FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON WEDNSESDAY IT WILL FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN GUYANA AND EASTERN VENEZUELA.
GALVEZ...(WPC)
TINOCO...(WPC)
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