548
FXCA20 KWBC 271937
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
337 PM EDT TUE AUG 27 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 27 AUG 2024 AT 19:40 UTC:
ON NORTHWEST MEXICO...A MID-UPPER LOW IN NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
IS FORECAST TO MEANDER INTO THE SOUTHWEST USA EARLY ON WEDNESDAY.
LATER ON...EXPECT THE ESTABLISHMENT OF WESTERLY FLOW...WHICH
SHOULD YIELD TO A SLIGHT DECREASE IN MONSOON-RELATED DAILY
RAINFALL TOTALS. EXPECT A DECREASE FROM MAXIMA OF 20-45MM ON
TUESDAY TO ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15-30MM BY THURSDAY.
TROPICAL WAVES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ACTIVE AND PLAY A ROLE IN
MODULATING CONVECTION IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND MOST OF MEXICO. THE
EASTERN WAVE IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE FROM 80-82W OR THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN ON TUESDAY...TO CHIAPAS/TABASCO BY THURSDAY. THE WESTERN
WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM OAXACA/VERACRUZ ON TUESDAY TO
JALISCO/NAYARIT ON THURSDAY. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN TERMS
OF RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED IN MEXICO AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA.
ON TUESDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM FROM SOUTHERN
GUATEMALA/CHIAPAS WEST INTO GUERRERO AND NORTH INTO CENTRAL
VERACRUZ. ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IN
SOUTHERN MEXICO FROM OAXACA WEST INTO JALISCO WHERE AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST TO REACH MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA
OF 30-60MM IN GUATEMALA/CHIAPAS/TABASCO. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED IN JALISCO/NAYARIT WITH A SLIGHT RISK FOR MCS FORMATION.
ANOTHER SET OF WAVES ARE MOVING INTO THE CARIBBEAN FROM THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC. NOTE THAT A TRADE WIND SURGE IS ALSO PRESENT.
ON TUESDAY...EXPECT A TROPICAL WAVE TO CROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE TRADE WIND SURGE ARRIVES
EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. NOTE...HOWEVER...THE MOISTURE IS CLUSTERING
WITH THE TRADE WIND SURGE WHILE THE WAVE ASSOCIATES WITH A DRY AIR
MASS. THUS...MOST PRECIPITATION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY
ORGANIZE OVERNIGHT WITH THE SURGE AND FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15 FROM
BARBADOS INTO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ON WEDNESDAY...THE
SYSTEMS WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15MM IN THE VI AND PUERTO RICO. AS
THE TRADE WIND SURGE DISSIPATES THEREAFTER...EXPECT LIMITED
EFFECTS ON PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY. NOTEWORTHY...A DISORGANIZED
TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE INTO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15MM IN THE CENTRAL LESSER
ANTILLES...WHILE IT FAVORS MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN NORTHERN GUYANA
AND NORTHEAST VENEZUELA. AS THIS WAVE APPROACHES NORTHERN
COLOMBIA/FAR NORTHWEST VENEZUELA ON THURSDAY...IT WILL FAVOR
STRONG LATE NIGHT CONVECTION IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO PROMOTE
MAXIMA OF 40-80MM AND A RISK FOR MCS FORMATION.
AN UPPER TROUGH IS ORGANIZING OVER WATERS TO THE NORTH OF THE
BAHAMAS. MODELS ARE CONFIDENCE OF A DEEPENING TREND OF THIS
LOW...THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN VENTILATION ACROSS
THE BAHAMAS...AS WELL AS A DESTABILIZATION. THESE FACTORS ARE
FORECAST TO FAVOR AN INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO VALUES OVER
50MM BY THURSDAY...AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN THE RISK FOR SEVERE
CONVECTION. BY WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM WITH A RISK
FOR HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS. THIS INCREASES TO MAXIMA OF 20-35MM BY
THURSDAY...WITH A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERITY.
JACKMAN...(BMS BARBADOS)
MATHIAS...(CIAARA-MB BRASIL)
GALVEZ...(WPC)
TINOCO...(WPC)
LEDESMA...(WPC)
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