869
FXUS01 KWBC 280818
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EDT WED AUG 28 2024
VALID 12Z WED AUG 28 2024 - 12Z FRI AUG 30 2024
...RECORD HEAT FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC TODAY BUT THE HEAT WILL LAST A
COUPLE MORE DAYS FOR THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS INTO THE
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST...
...ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING THE THREATS OF HEAVY RAIN,
FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT AND THEN THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...
...STRONG TO SEVERE LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE EAST-CENTRAL U.S FOR TODAY AND THURSDAY...
...FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON EXPECTED FOR THE HIGH ELEVATIONS
OF NORTHWESTERN MONTANA TODAY WHILE FIRE WEATHER THREAT BLANKETS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...
A COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT RELIEF TO THE HEAT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WHILE TRIGGERING CLUSTERS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE MIDWEST THIS MORNING. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST AND
SOUTHEASTWARD, A DAY OF RECORD HEAT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURE COULD REACH 100 DEGREES
AROUND THE NATION'S CAPITAL. THIS HEATWAVE WILL BE RELATIVELY
SHORT-LIVED FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC AS A MUCH COOLER AND DAMP AIR
MASS ASSOCIATED WITH A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY
SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC BY THURSDAY. HOWEVER, MUCH OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS WILL FEEL A COUPLE MORE DAYS OF HIGH TEMPERATURES TOPPING
INTO THE UPPER 90S AT THE HOTTEST LOCATIONS AS THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MARCHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CEASE THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE COOL AIR AND KEEP THE HEAT IN PLACE FOR
THESE AREAS. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES, THE HOT AIR WILL BE
LIFTED AND HELP TRIGGER LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH CAN BECOME
SEVERE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND VERY GUSTY WINDS.
THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LATER TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING FROM OHIO EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
NEAR/AFTER THE TIME OF MAXIMUM HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME
MORE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM THURSDAY AFTERNOON FARTHER
SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY. VERY COOL AIR WILL
THEN BLANKET THE ENTIRE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE, THE STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MARCHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SHARPLY
COLDER AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING THE FIRST
SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON FOR THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF NORTHWESTERN
MONTANA TODAY WHILE FIRE WEATHER THREAT BLANKETS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE STEADILY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY WHERE THE
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE HIGHEST FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA, THEN SHIFTING EAST ACROSS A LARGE CHUNK OF
THE MIDWEST AND UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY TO THURSDAY NIGHT.
FARTHER SOUTH IN TEXAS, AN UPPER LOW HAD MOVED INLAND FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO SINCE YESTERDAY. THE INSTABILITY HAS CONTINUED TO
HELP TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS.
MEANWHILE, DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LOW HAS
DIRECTED TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF TOWARD THE
WESTERN GULF COAST REGION, WHERE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL COULD DEVELOP
IN THE VICINITY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ELSEWHERE, WHILE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE HAS BECOME NOT AS ACTIVE AND WIDESPREAD OVER
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TODAY, MORE FOCUSED ACTIVITIES ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO COULD LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL. BY
THURSDAY, THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL LIKELY
PUSH THE RAIN FARTHER EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHERE STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATER IN THE DAY.
KONG
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