562
FXCA20 KWBC 281934
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
333 PM EDT WED AUG 28 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 28 AUG 2024 AT 19:30 UTC:
THE MAIN SYSTEM OF INTEREST IS A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH LOCATED
NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND EXPAND
INTO CUBA/CAYMAN ISLANDS AS EARLY AS THURSDAY MORNING...AND
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY/MONDAY WHEN IT WILL START TO LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE POTENT TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DESTABILIZE THE
TROPOSPHERE IN THE REGION WHILE PROVIDING VENTILATION FOR STRONG
CONVECTION. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE CURRENTLY BUILDING MOIST
PLUME...YIELDING TO AN ASSOCIATED GRADUAL INCREASE IN RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND LOCAL MAXIMA OF
15-25MM WITH A RISK FOR HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS. ON THURSDAY...THE
ARRIVAL OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH THE STRENGTHENING
TROUGH TO FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM AND ASLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERITY IN
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL CUBA. IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM ALSO WITH A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERITY...WHILE IN THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS EXPECT MAXIMA OF
20-35MM. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN THE RISK FOR SEVERITY
AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS EVOLUTION. IN CUBA EXPECT MAXIMA OF
30-60MM WITH A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERITY...WHILE IN THE NORTHWEST
AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-40MM ALSO WITH A MODERATE
RISK FOR SEVERITY.
ALSO IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMAIN...A TRADE WIND SURGE AND A
TROPICAL WAVE ARE PROPAGATING WESTWARD. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE
CONVECTION IS ORGANIZED WITH THE TRADE WIND SURGE...THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO DISSPATE ON WEDNESDAY WHILE THE MOIST PLUME CONTINUES
PROPAGATING WESTWARD. ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT THE DISSIPATING SURGE
TO FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...WHILE THE TROPICAL WAVE FAVORS MAXIMA OF 15MM IN
HISPANIOLA. ON THURSDAY...THE WAVE WILL YIELD TO AN ENHANCEMENT OF
CONVECTION IN THE BAHAMAS...WHILE IN AREAS SOUTH...EXPECT MARGINAL
ENHANCEMENT DUE TO LIMITED AMOUNTS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE. ON
FRIDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-20MM IN NICARAGUA AND MAXIMA OF
15-20MM IN COSTA RICA. TRAILING MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MAXIMA
OF 30-60MM IN CUBA.
IN ADDITION TO THESE SYSTEMS...ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS ENTERING
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND IS DEFINED SOUTH OF 15S. THE WAVE IS
CURRENTLY ILL-DEFINED. ON WEDNESDAY...IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF
15-25MM IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND NORTHEAST VENEZUELA. ON
THURSDAY IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-40MM IN HISPANIOLA...AND
MAXIMA OF 15-20MM IN NORTHWEST VENEZUELA. IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND
FAR NORTHWEST VENEZUELA...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 40-80MM WITH A RISK FOR
MCS FORMATIONAS ONSHORE FLOW IS ENHANCED BY THE APPROACHING WAVE.
ON FRIDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN CUBA. EXPECT
MORE ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT IN JAMAICA. IN NORTHWEST COLOMBIA EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 20-40MM.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH CONTINUES PROPAGATING TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST USA. THIS WILL FAVOR AN INCREASE IN
MID-UPPER WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO...WHICH WILL IN
TERM YIELD TO AN EASTWARD MIGRATION OF NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON
DIURNAL CONVECTION. ON WEDNESDAY EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN
SINALOA/DURANGO WHILE IN CHIHUAHUA AND EAST SONORA EXPECT MAXIMA
OF 15MM. ON THURSDAY AND ON MOST ACTIVITY WILL FOCUS ON
DURANGO/SINALOA WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-30MM. ALSO IN NORTHERN
MEXICO...AN UPPER TROUGH IS WEAKENING WHILE MEANDERING NORTHWARD
FROM TAMAULIPAS INTO TEXAS. EXPECT MAXIMA GENERALLY UNDER THE
15-20MM/DAY RANGE IN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MEXICO. LARGER
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH OF 21N...WHERE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH
THE FORECAST CYCLE. TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES WILL PLAY A PARTIAL
ROLE IN HIGLIGHTING ACCUMULATION. THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM FROM OAXACA/PUEBLA WEST INTO JALISCO. ON
THURSDAY...AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN
GUATEMALA/CHIAPAS/TABASCO. IN AREAS WEST FROM SOUTHERN
VERACRUZ/OAXACA INTO NAYARIT EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. ON FRIDAY
EXPECT ALSO MAXIMA OF 20-40MM STRETCHING FROM GUATEMALA INTO
JALISCO/NAYARIT.
MATHIAS...(CIAARA-MB BRASIL)
GALVEZ...(WPC)
TINOCO...(WPC)
LEDESMA...(WPC)
ACOSTA...(WPC)
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