015
FXUS01 KWBC 290809
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EDT THU AUG 29 2024
VALID 12Z THU AUG 29 2024 - 12Z SAT AUG 31 2024
...ABOVE AVERAGE HEAT EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A COOLING TREND ARRIVES BY
THE WEEKEND...
...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND MID-ATLANTIC TODAY, THEN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY...
...SOME TROPICAL HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD AFFECT THE
WESTERN GULF COAST REGION THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR THE
U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER OF THE HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE STEADILY ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING AHEAD OF A POTENT COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH
FROM THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL LIKELY IMPACT NORTH DAKOTA EARLY
THIS MORNING, BEFORE QUICKLY ADVANCING INTO MINNESOTA AND DOWN
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THIS EVENING. THESE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP INTO SUPERCELLS THAT MAY CONTAIN DAMAGING WINDS,
LARGE HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES. MEANWHILE, THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC COULD ALSO BE STRONG TO SEVERE WHERE SOME GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED INSTANCES
OF FLASH FLOODING BY THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THE
FRONT THAT HELPS TRIGGER THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY EDGE
FARTHER SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY, BRINGING RELIEF
FROM THE HEAT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING INTO THE 70S
FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST. THE COOL AIR WILL NOT HAVE A CHANCE TO
REACH INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THOUGH AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHERN
CANADA. A COUPLE MORE DAYS OF HEAT WITH AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE 90S ARE EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS.
ABOVE AVERAGE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE LITTLE
RELIEF, LOWS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.
A COOLING TREND WILL SET IN BY THE WEEKEND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH EMBEDDED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL
THEN EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON FRIDAY AS THE TRAILING END OF THE FRONT BEGINS TO SLOW
DOWN AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
SATURDAY.
SEPARATE FROM THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
COUNTRY, TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO COULD LEAD TO
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN GULF COAST REGION AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW LINGERS OVER TEXAS. A SMALL SCALE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER COULD FORM AND INTERACT WITH A SUBTLE COASTAL FRONT TO
ENHANCE RAINFALL RATES, LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING
ISSUES OVER PORTIONS OF THE THE WESTERN GULF COAST THROUGH THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ACROSS THE REST OF THE COUNTRY, A GENERAL COOLDOWN IS EXPECTED
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 80S. MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEAST SHOULD BE WARM AND HUMID WITH COMMONPLACE HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 90S. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR
THE WESTERN U.S. FOLLOWING THE RECENT COOL SPELL AS THE STRONG LOW
DEPARTS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA.
KONG/WILDER
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