196
FXCA20 KWBC 292014
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
413 PM EDT THU AUG 29 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 29 AUG 2024 AT 19:30 UTC:
A SYSTEM OF INTEREST CONTINUES TO BE THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS/SOUTH FLORIDA. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS
AND MOVES LITTLE THROUGH THE FORECAST CYCLE...IT WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE CONVERGENCE YIELDING TO A LOCAL
INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER. IT WILL ALSO FAVOR PERIODS OF
SEVERE CONVECTION IN CUBA AND PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS. IN
ADDITION...THE NORTHERN TIER OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING INTO THE
REGION ON THURSDAY...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL FORCING AND MOISTURE TO
THE EVENT. THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-40MM IN WEST
CUBA AND IN THE CENTRAL/NORTHWEST BAHAMAS INCLUDING A SLIGHT TO
MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERITY. IN THE EXTREME NORTHWEST BAHAMAS
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM...WHILE IN EAST CUBA EXPECT MAXIMA OF
20-35MM. ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 35-70MM/DAY IN CENTRAL
AND EAST CUBA WITH A RISK FOR SEVERITY. IN THE NORTHWEST AND
CENTRAL BAHAMAS EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM ALSO WITH A RISK FOR
SEVERITY. IN WEST CUBA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-30MM IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN
THE EXTREME NORTHWEST BAHAMAS WITH A RISK FOR HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS.
IN WEST CUBA...THE MOIST PLUME AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 20-40MM.
INCREASED WESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERE IS LEADING TO
A TEMPORARY DECREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR THE NORTH AMERICAN
MONSOON IN REGIONS NORTH OF NORTHERN SINALOA. HOWEVER...AS A
TROPICAL WAVE PROPAGATES ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON
THURSDAY...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. FURTHERMORE...MODELS ARE SHOWING THE DEEPENING OF AN
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASE IN ACTIVITY ONCE AGAIN STARTING FRIDAY. ON
THURSDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-40MM FROM NAYARIT INTO CENTRAL
SINALOA. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM DEVELOPING FRON
SOUTHERN SINALOA/DURANGO INTO SOUTHERN SONORA. ON
SATRUDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM FROM NAYARIT/JALISCO INTO
CENTRAL SINALOA...WHILE IN NORTHERN SINALOA/SONORA/CHIHUAHUA
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-30MM.
AN ILL-DEFINED EASTERLY WAVE IS PROPAGATING SLOWLY ACROSS NORTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA ON THURSDAY...AND IS FORECAST TO REACH THE SIERRA
MADRE ORIENTAL BY SATURDAY. THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY THIS WILL FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 25-50MM FROM WESTERN HONDURAS/NORTHERN EL SALVADOR INTO
CHIAPAS. ON FRIDAY IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM FROM
CHIAPAS/TABASCO INTO OAXACA. EXPECT SIMILAR AMOUNTS ON SATURDAY IN
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MEXICO AND IN OAXACA/GUERRERO/PUEBLA.
IN SOUTH AMERICA AND SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA...CONVECTION WILL
GENERALLY ALIGN WITH THE ITCZ/NET AND WITH WAVES PROPAGATING IN
THE TRADES. REMARKABLE AREAS WILL BE NORTHERN COLOMBIA/NORTHWEST
VENEZUELA ON THURSDAY WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. ON FRIDAY
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA/NORTHWEST VENEZUELA
WITH A RISK FOR MCS FORMATION...AS A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES FROM
THE EAST. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM/DAY IN NORTHERN
COLOMBIA AND THE LAKE MARACAIBO REGION ALSO WITH A RISK FOR MCS
FORMATION. ALSO ON SATURDAY...ENHANCED AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND A
BROAD PANAMANIAN LOW CIRCULATION WILL FAVOR GENERALLY MAXIMA OF
20-45MM IN COSTA RICA...MOST OF PANAMA...AND WESTERN COLOMBIA.
MATHIAS...(CIAARA-MB BRASIL)
GALVEZ...(WPC)
TINOCO...(WPC)
ACOSTA...(WPC)
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