201
FXUS01 KWBC 300800
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EDT FRI AUG 30 2024
VALID 12Z FRI AUG 30 2024 - 12Z SUN SEP 01 2024
...WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM THE PLAINS TO
EAST COAST TO START THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND
SEVERE WEATHER...
...HEAVY RAIN AND SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE
LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS GULF COASTS...
...RECORD HEAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS INTO
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TODAY WITH RELIEF ON TAP FOR THE
WEEKEND...
...MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BUILD ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...
A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY HEADING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TODAY
(FRIDAY), STORM CHANCES WILL STRETCH FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/ROCKIES. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO SOME MORE ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, WITH SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION, AN ACCOMPANYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD
WILL BRING SOME HIGHER WINDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES, LEADING TO
STRONGER SHEAR AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER. THERE IS
A TARGETED SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) FROM THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MICHIGAN MAINLY FOR THE RISK OF
DAMAGING WINDS. ON SATURDAY, THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS FURTHER SOUTH
AND EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST WHILE SLOWING IN
PROGRESS AND BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY WITH SOUTHWESTWARD EXTENT
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A BROADER AREA OF SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND
MID-ATLANTIC AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD OVER THE
REGION. DAMAGING WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. IN
ADDITION, ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE, WITH THE
POTENTIAL THAT A HIGHER THREAT MAY MATERIALIZE GIVEN THE SLOWING
FRONTAL PROGRESSION.
FURTHER SOUTH, ANOTHER MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF HEAVIER RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN LOUISIANA
AND UPPER TEXAS GULF COASTS AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS IN
THE VICINITY. HIGHER RAIN RATES AND REPEATED ROUNDS OF STORMS MAY
LEAD TO LOCALLY HIGHER RAIN TOTALS OF 2-4"+ OVER FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) HAS BEEN
INCLUDED FOR BOTH DAYS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME SCATTERED FLASH
FLOODING. DAILY THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO FORECAST OVER THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.
ONE MORE DAY OF EXCESSIVE HEAT IS FORECAST OVER THE OHIO/TENNESSEE
VALLEYS AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TODAY AS TEMPERATURES SOAR ONCE
AGAIN INTO THE MID- TO UPPER 90S. HIGH HUMIDITY MAY BRING HEAD
INDICES INTO THE LOW 100S. A FEW RECORD-TYING/BREAKING HIGHS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND INCREASING STORM
CHANCES/CLOUD COVER WILL FINALLY BRING SOME RELIEF ON SATURDAY AS
HIGHS DROP INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER
OHIO VALLEYS, WITH UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S FOR THE UPPER OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS. ELSEWHERE, HIGHS WILL BE PARTICULARLY MILD
NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND
NEW ENGLAND, WITH 70S AND EVEN SOME UPPER 60S EXPECTED TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP A FEW DEGREES AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE
WELL BELOW AVERAGE OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WITH LOW TO MID-80S FORECAST.
AREAS AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM TEXAS INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE
SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S.
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH TO THE EAST, AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC COAST WILL SHIFT INLAND, HELPING TO FOCUS
HOT, MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
WEST. FORECAST HIGHS ON FRIDAY FOR THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE LOW TO MID-90S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THEN, ON SATURDAY, THE HEAT WILL INTENSIFY AS WELL AS
EXPAND INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, WITH MANY HIGHS IN THE MID- TO
UPPER 90S, 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. HEAT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN GIVEN THE HEIGHTENED
RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES, AND EXTRA CARE SHOULD BE TAKEN TO
SEEK SHADED AREAS AND REMAIN HYDRATED THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
ELSEWHERE IN THE WEST, TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR OR JUST
ABOVE AVERAGE, WITH 60S AND 70S ALONG THE COAST, 80S TO LOW 90S
FOR THE GREAT BASIN, MID-90S FOR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA VALLEYS,
AND 100S IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE SOUTHWEST.
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