927
FXUS01 KWBC 310700
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
259 AM EDT SAT AUG 31 2024
VALID 12Z SAT AUG 31 2024 - 12Z MON SEP 02 2024
...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TO EAST COAST TO START THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...
...FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SATURDAY...
...MULTIPLE DAYS OF HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING FOR
PORTIONS OF THE LOUISIANA AND TEXAS GULF COASTS...
...WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, HOT LATE-SUMMER TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN
THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS MORNING (SATURDAY), EXTENDING FROM THE
NORTHEAST SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS, MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MID-SOUTH, AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE LENGTH OF THE FRONT, WITH MOIST AIR AND INSTABILITY
LIKELY LEADING TO SOME MORE INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS, HEAVY
DOWNPOURS, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. A
LOCALLY HIGHER THREAT IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
TRAINING/REPEATED ROUNDS OF STORMS ACROSS MORE SENSITIVE MOUNTAIN
TERRAIN. THE REGION IS UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
(LEVEL 2/4) FOR THE THREAT OF A FEW MORE SCATTERED INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING. IN ADDITION, STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WITH THE PASSING
UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASED SHEAR FOR SOME MORE ORGANIZED
STORMS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ALSO INCLUDED A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL 2/5), MAINLY FOR THE THREAT OF SOME
DAMAGING WINDS. THE FRONTS FORWARD PROGRESSION WILL SLOW THROUGH
SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY WITH SOUTHWESTWARD EXTENT, LEADING TO
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF STORMS ON SUNDAY WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS WEST
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, MID-SOUTH, AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/MID-ATLANTIC AND
CAROLINAS AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT SWEEPING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING AN END TO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE
SOUTHEAST/SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.
FURTHER SOUTH, ANOTHER AREA OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TODAY IN VICINITY OF A COASTAL LOW NEAR THE WESTERN LOUISIANA AND
UPPER TEXAS GULF COASTS. ANOTHER SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
IS IN PLACE AS SLOW MOVING AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL-PRODUCING
STORMS GIVEN ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO SOME ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY GIVEN WETTER
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FROM RAINFALL THE PAST FEW DAYS. AT LEAST AN
ISOLATED THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL EXIST INTO SUNDAY, THOUGH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY TREND DOWNWARD. DAILY THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
FORECAST FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, WITH SOME ISOLATED INSTANCES
OF URBAN FLOODING POSSIBLE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY.
TEMPERATURE-WISE, RELIEF FROM THE MORE INTENSE HEAT THIS PAST WEEK
WILL FINALLY COME TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI, OHIO, AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS AS INCREASING STORM CHANCES AND THE APPROACHING FRONT KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S AND LOW
90S. LOW 90S WILL ALSO BE COMMON ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH MID-80S
TO LOW 90S FOR THE APPALACHIANS AND SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. HIGHS
WILL REMAIN COOLER AND MAINLY IN THE 70S TO THE NORTH OF A WARM
FRONT FOR THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY, WITH
A REBOUND INTO THE LOW 80S EXPECTED FOR MANY LOCATIONS SUNDAY AS
THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND
MIDWEST WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 80S TODAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS
COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MUCH
BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE SUMMER OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID-80S OUTSIDE
OF SOUTH TEXAS. SOME 70S WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR WEST TEXAS.
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, HOT LATE-SUMMER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND FOR THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. AS A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE WEST. HIGHS ARE FORECAST INTO THE
90S TO NEAR 100 ACROSS THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST, NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN, AND NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND HAVE PROMPTED SOME HEAT
ADVISORIES FOR THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES GIVEN THE
HEIGHTENED RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS
FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOULD REMEMBER TO TAKE MORE FREQUENT
BREAKS FROM THE HEAT IN THE SHADE AND STAY HYDRATED. HIGHS
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE WEST WILL NOT BE QUITE AS ABOVE AVERAGE, BUT
STILL HOT, WITH 90S FOR THE GREAT BASIN AND INTERIOR CALIFORNIA
AND 100S IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST/FOUR
CORNERS REGION WILL BE A BIT COOLER WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES EXPECTED IN VICINITY OF A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S.
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