506
FXUS01 KWBC 311834
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
233 PM EDT SAT AUG 31 2024
VALID 00Z SUN SEP 01 2024 - 00Z TUE SEP 03 2024
..UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE EAST THROUGH SUNDAY
...MULTIPLE DAYS OF HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF COAST...
...WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, HOT LATE-SUMMER TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN
THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND, EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHEAST
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS, MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY/MID-SOUTH, AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE LENGTH OF THE
FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH MOIST AIR AND INSTABILITY LIKELY
LEADING TO SOME MORE INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS, HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. A LOCALLY HIGHER THREAT
IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME TRAINING/REPEATED ROUNDS OF STORMS
ACROSS MORE SENSITIVE MOUNTAIN TERRAIN. THE REGION IS UNDER A
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) FOR THE THREAT OF A
FEW MORE SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. IN ADDITION,
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WITH THE PASSING UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING
INCREASED SHEAR FOR SOME MORE ORGANIZED STORMS. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS ALSO INCLUDED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER (LEVEL 2/5), MAINLY FOR THE THREAT OF SOME DAMAGING WINDS.
THE FRONTS FORWARD PROGRESSION WILL SLOW THROUGH INTO EARLY
SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY WITH SOUTHWESTWARD EXTENT, LEADING TO
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF STORMS ON SUNDAY WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS WEST
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, MID-SOUTH, AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/MID-ATLANTIC AND
CAROLINAS. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SWEEPING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL
BRING AN END TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF
THE SOUTHEAST/SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.
FURTHER SOUTH, ANOTHER AREA OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TODAY IN VICINITY OF A COASTAL LOW NEAR THE WESTERN LOUISIANA AND
UPPER TEXAS GULF COASTS. ANOTHER SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
IS IN PLACE AS SLOW MOVING AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL-PRODUCING
STORMS GIVEN ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO SOME ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY GIVEN WETTER
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FROM RAINFALL THE PAST FEW DAYS. AT LEAST AN
ISOLATED THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL EXIST INTO SUNDAY, THOUGH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY TREND DOWNWARD. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE TO END THE WEEKEND AND INTO LABOR DAY
THROUGHOUT CENTRAL TEXAS AS A LINGERING STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO COMBINE TO
PRODUCE AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SCATTERED FLASH FLOODS. DAILY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO FORECAST FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, WITH
SOME ISOLATED INSTANCES OF URBAN FLOODING POSSIBLE FOR SOUTH
FLORIDA TODAY. TEMPERATURE-WISE, RELIEF FROM THE MORE INTENSE HEAT
THIS PAST WEEK WILL FINALLY COME TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI, OHIO,
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AS INCREASING STORM CHANCES AND THE
APPROACHING FRONT KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT, WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 80S AND LOW 90S. LOW 90S WILL ALSO BE COMMON
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH MID-80S TO LOW 90S FOR THE APPALACHIANS
AND SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. HIGHS WILL REMAIN COOLER AND MAINLY IN
THE 70S TO THE NORTH OF A WARM FRONT FOR THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
AND NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY, WITH A REBOUND INTO THE LOW 80S EXPECTED
FOR MANY LOCATIONS SUNDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 80S
TODAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S
SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MUCH BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE SUMMER
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID-80S OUTSIDE OF SOUTH TEXAS. SOME 70S WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR WEST TEXAS.
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, HOT LATE-SUMMER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND FOR THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. AS A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE WEST. HIGHS ARE FORECAST INTO THE
90S TO NEAR 100 ACROSS THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST, NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN, AND NORTHERN ROCKIES, WHICH HAVE PROMPTED SOME HEAT
ADVISORIES FOR THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES GIVEN THE
HEIGHTENED RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS. THIS HEAT IS THEN
FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES ON LABOR DAY, WITH HIGHS ALSO REACHING INTO THE
MID-TO-UPPER 90S. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
SHOULD REMEMBER TO TAKE MORE FREQUENT BREAKS FROM THE HEAT IN THE
SHADE AND STAY HYDRATED. HIGHS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE WEST WILL NOT
BE QUITE AS ABOVE AVERAGE, BUT STILL HOT, WITH 90S FOR THE GREAT
BASIN AND INTERIOR CALIFORNIA AND 100S IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST/FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL BE A BIT COOLER
WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXPECTED IN VICINITY OF A
LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S.
SNELL/PUTNAM
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