205
FXUS01 KWBC 010752
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
351 AM EDT SUN SEP 01 2024
VALID 12Z SUN SEP 01 2024 - 12Z TUE SEP 03 2024
...AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING
ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH LABOR DAY...
..UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST CONTINUES TODAY
...WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, HOT LATE-SUMMER TEMPERATURES SPREAD FROM
THE NORTHWESTERN TO NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND...
AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS A COUPLE
DISTURBANCES HELP TO DRIVE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. FIRST,
A LINGERING COASTAL LOW WILL BRING MORE STORMS TO THE WESTERN
LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS GULF COASTS TODAY (SUNDAY) WITH A
MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 1/4) AND SOME ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING. THE LOW WILL DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD MONDAY (LABOR
DAY), BRINGING STORM CHANCES TO THE CENTRAL TEXAS GULF COAST.
MEANWHILE, ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND TO THE NORTH
OF A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM NORTH TEXAS SOUTHWEST
TOWARDS THE RIO GRANDE, WITH ANOTHER MARGINAL RISK AREA SUNDAY
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND CENTRAL/WESTERN TEXAS. AN
EMBEDDED WEAKNESS IN BROADER UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING ALOFT WILL HELP
TO ENCOURAGE MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS ON MONDAY WITH A HIGHER THREAT
OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY AS
SOILS BECOME WETTER GIVEN RAINFALL OVER THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND. A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) HAS BEEN
INTRODUCED FOR THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY WHERE THIS THREAT IS
GREATEST, WITH A CONTINUED MORE EXPANSIVE MARGINAL RISK ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS. THE WIDESPREAD STORMS AND
CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN
THE REGION, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S, AND EVEN SOME 70S ON
MONDAY FOR WEST TEXAS AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF
THE EASTERN U.S. AHEAD OF A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TODAY FROM THE SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS WEST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
WHERE SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WEST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AND INTO THE MID-SOUTH. MORE SCATTERED, LIGHTER SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. A SECOND, STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
BRING DRIER AIR BY MONDAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS, THOUGH STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTS
SOUTHWEST THROUGH GEORGIA TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. DAILY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO FORECAST FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
FORECAST HIGHS TODAY RANGE FROM THE 70S IN NEW ENGLAND AND THE
GREAT LAKES/UPPER MID-WEST TO THE 80S IN THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
OHIO/TENNESSEE/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS AND 90S DEEPER INTO THE
SOUTHEAST AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE PASSING COLD FRONT
WILL BRING THE MORE MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S FURTHER INTO THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND OHIO/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS MONDAY.
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE,
HOT LATE-SUMMER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. TODAY AS
HIGHS SOAR INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
MID- TO UPPER 90S FOR THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. HEAT ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN GIVEN THE
HIGHER THREAT FOR HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD ON MONDAY, BRINGING THESE HOTTER TEMPERATURES INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID- TO UPPER 90S.
THOSE WITH PLANS THIS WEEKEND SHOULD LIMIT THEIR TIME OUTDOORS OR
SEEK MORE BREAKS FROM THE SUN IN THE SHADE, AS WELL AS REMEMBER TO
STAY WELL HYDRATED. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE PACIFIC
APPROACHING IN ITS WAKE WILL BRING RELIEF TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
MONDAY AS HIGHS DROP INTO THE 70S, AND CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID-80S TO LOWER 90S. HOWEVER, STRENGTHENING DOWNSLOPING WINDS OFF
THE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW ON
MONDAY HAVE PROMPTED A CRITICAL RISK OF FIRE WEATHER FROM THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER FOR NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA, SOUTHEASTERN
OREGON, AND NORTHWESTERN NEVADA. ELSEWHERE IN THE WEST, HIGHS WILL
BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE BUT STILL HOT, WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S FOR THE
GREAT BASIN AND INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA, AND 100S FOR THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. CONDITIONS WILL BE A BIT COOLER IN THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S, AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE TODAY.
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