285
FXUS01 KWBC 011939
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
338 PM EDT SUN SEP 01 2024
VALID 00Z MON SEP 02 2024 - 00Z WED SEP 04 2024
...AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING
FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. INTO EARLY THIS WEEK...
...WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, HOT LATE-SUMMER TEMPERATURES SPREAD FROM
THE NORTHWESTERN TO NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN ON
MONDAY...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO IMPACT THE SOUTHERN U.S. THROUGH
EARLY THIS WEEK, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAIN OCCURS. A COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH
MONDAY AND EVENTUALLY STALLING ON TUESDAY IN THE DEEP SOUTH WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND STORMS STRETCHING BETWEEN
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
INTERACT WITH ANOMALOUS ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT LINGERING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND GULF COAST AS WELL AS UPPER-LEVEL
ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO. THESE INGREDIENTS ARE
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF CONTAINING INTENSE
RAINFALL RATES WHILE ALSO EXHIBITING SLOW FORWARD SPEED ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST TEXAS ON LABOR DAY, WHICH HAS
PROMPTED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TO BE
ISSUED. THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK FOR THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS, FLORIDA, AND OVER THE GULF COAST REGION. RESIDENTS AND
VISITORS ARE REMINDED TO REMAIN WEATHER READY AND NEVER DRIVE
ACROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS.
ANOTHER PART OF THE NATION WITH ACTIVE AND POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WILL BE THE NORTHWEST
AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REPLACE
LATE-SUMMER HEAT OVER THE REGION TODAY. HOT TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 90S FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN
TODAY IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE, A WEATHER SYSTEM ENTERING THE
NORTHWEST TODAY WILL SPREAD ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO THE
GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LIGHTNING
ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS COULD SPARK FIRES IN AREAS WITH RECEPTIVE
FUELS. ADDITIONALLY, GUSTY WINDS IMPACTING NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA,
NORTHWEST NEVADA, AND SOUTHEAST OREGON ON LABOR DAY HAS PROMPTED A
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER RISK.
ELSEWHERE, WARM TEMPERATURES ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY, WHILE COOL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DUE TO AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND
RAIN CHANCES. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY AND NORTHEAST
ON TUESDAY, USHERING IN A REFRESHING FALL AIRMASS BETWEEN THE
MIDWEST AND EAST COAST. DRY CONDITIONS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO
THE 70S AND LOW 80S WILL BE WIDESPREAD, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
DIPPING INTO THE CRISP 40S AND 50S.
SNELL
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