720   
FXUS01 KWBC 020800  
PMDSPD  
  
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
400 AM EDT MON SEP 02 2024  
  
VALID 12Z MON SEP 02 2024 - 12Z WED SEP 04 2024  
  
...AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING  
FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF  
DAYS...  
  
...WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, HOT LATE-SUMMER TEMPERATURES SPREAD FROM  
THE NORTHWESTERN TO NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH TUESDAY...  
  
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN ON  
MONDAY...  
  
AREAS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE  
SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY  
RAINFALL EXPECTED. FIRST, A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO TEXAS THIS  
MORNING (MONDAY) WILL SLOW AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY BY LATER  
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES OVERHEAD, COMBINING  
TO HELP TRIGGER NUMEROUS STORMS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY OVER THE  
TEXAS HILL COUNTRY, WEST TEXAS, AND THE BIG BEND REGION. THERE IS  
A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) AS CONTINUED STORM  
DEVELOPMENT AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY LEAD TO SOME SCATTERED FLASH  
FLOODING. A MORE LOCALIZED THREAT OVER THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY  
EXISTS TUESDAY, WITH ANOTHER SLIGHT RISK IN PLACE. ADDITIONAL  
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO THE EAST ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW  
PRESSURE LOCATED JUST OFF THE TEXAS COAST. ANOTHER SLIGHT RISK OF  
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FOR TODAY ALONG THE CENTRAL  
TEXAS GULF COAST WHERE MORE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SOME SCATTERED  
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE WIDESPREAD STORMS, RAINFALL,  
AND CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE REGION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW  
AVERAGE, WITH MANY HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS CENTRAL AND WEST TEXAS,  
AND 80S FURTHER EAST TOWARDS THE GULF COAST.  
  
SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT  
FURTHER EAST ALONG THE COASTAL CAROLINAS SOUTHWEST THROUGH GEORGIA  
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST, WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTING TO THE  
CENTRAL GULF COAST BY TUESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY SLOWS AND BECOMES  
QUASI-STATIONARY. DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE  
FLORIDA PENINSULA AS WELL. TO THE NORTH, THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD  
FRONT MEANS SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S.  
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST HIGHS RANGE FROM THE 60S AND 70S  
FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST, GREAT LAKES, AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST; THE  
70S TO LOW 80S FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEST THROUGH THE  
MID-ATLANTIC AND INTO THE OHIO AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS; AND  
80S FROM THE CAROLINAS WEST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A TASTE  
OF FALL IS IN STORE FOR MANY IN THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST TUESDAY  
MORNING AS LOWS DROP INTO THE 40S. HIGHS WILL REMAIN A BIT WARMER  
TO THE SOUTH, WITH 90S FOR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ALONG  
THE GULF COAST.  
  
MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE, HOT LATE-SUMMER TEMPERATURES SEEN OVER THE  
NORTHWESTERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND WILL SPREAD INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH  
PLAINS TODAY AS A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST SHIFTS  
EASTWARD. FORECAST HIGHS ARE MAINLY IN THE 90S, WITH SOME UPPER  
90S POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. AN APPROACHING PACIFIC  
SYSTEM/ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL HELP TO BRING SOME  
RELIEF TO THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. ON TUESDAY AS HIGHS DROP INTO THE  
80S. IN ADDITION, THE HEAT COMBINED WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND  
INCREASING WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING PACIFIC SYSTEM HAVE  
PROMPTED A CRITICAL RISK OF FIRE WEATHER FROM THE STORM PREDICTION  
CENTER FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN TODAY. ANOTHER CRITICAL  
RISK ALSO EXISTS OVER THE BLACK HILLS OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND  
NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA GIVEN A SIMILAR SETUP WITH DRY CONDITIONS  
AND INCREASING WINDS AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE  
ROCKIES. SOME VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY OVER THE  
GREAT BASIN TODAY WILL BECOME A BIT MORE NUMEROUS INTO THE  
NORTHERN ROCKIES ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES EASTWARD.  
INCREASING MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND AN  
ISOLATED INSTANCE OR TWO OF FLASH FLOODING. CONDITIONS WILL  
GENERALLY BE DRY AND AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE-WISE  
ELSEWHERE IN THE WEST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH HIGHS IN THE  
90S FOR THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AND INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA  
AND 100S IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER  
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY WILL BEGIN TO  
REBOUND ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD ALONG THE WEST  
COAST IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING PACIFIC SYSTEM.  
  
PUTNAM  
  
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  
  
  
 
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