536
FXUS01 KWBC 020808
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
407 AM EDT MON SEP 02 2024
VALID 12Z MON SEP 02 2024 - 12Z WED SEP 04 2024
...AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING
FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...
...WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, HOT LATE-SUMMER TEMPERATURES SPREAD FROM
THE NORTHWESTERN TO NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH TUESDAY...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN ON
MONDAY...
AREAS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL EXPECTED. FIRST, A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO TEXAS THIS
MORNING (MONDAY) WILL SLOW AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY BY LATER
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES OVERHEAD, COMBINING
TO HELP TRIGGER NUMEROUS STORMS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY OVER THE
TEXAS HILL COUNTRY, WEST TEXAS, AND THE BIG BEND REGION. THERE IS
A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) AS CONTINUED STORM
DEVELOPMENT AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY LEAD TO SOME SCATTERED FLASH
FLOODING. A MORE LOCALIZED THREAT OVER THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY
EXISTS TUESDAY, WITH A SLIGHT RISK IN PLACE. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO THE EAST ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED JUST OFF THE TEXAS COAST. ANOTHER SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FOR TODAY ALONG THE CENTRAL TEXAS
GULF COAST WHERE MORE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SOME SCATTERED FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE WIDESPREAD STORMS, RAINFALL, AND
CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE REGION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW
AVERAGE, WITH MANY HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS CENTRAL AND WEST TEXAS,
AND 80S FURTHER EAST TOWARDS THE GULF COAST.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
FURTHER EAST ALONG THE COASTAL CAROLINAS SOUTHWEST THROUGH GEORGIA
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST, WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTING TO THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST BY TUESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY SLOWS AND BECOMES
QUASI-STATIONARY. DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AS WELL. TO THE NORTH, THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT MEANS SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S.
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST HIGHS RANGE FROM THE 60S AND 70S
FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST, GREAT LAKES, AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST; THE
70S TO LOW 80S FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEST THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND INTO THE OHIO AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS; AND
80S FROM THE CAROLINAS WEST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A TASTE
OF FALL IS IN STORE FOR MANY IN THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST TUESDAY
MORNING AS LOWS DROP INTO THE 40S. HIGHS WILL REMAIN A BIT WARMER
TO THE SOUTH, WITH 90S FOR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ALONG
THE GULF COAST.
MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE, HOT LATE-SUMMER TEMPERATURES SEEN OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND WILL SPREAD INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS TODAY AS A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST SHIFTS
EASTWARD. FORECAST HIGHS ARE MAINLY IN THE 90S, WITH SOME UPPER
90S POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. AN APPROACHING PACIFIC
SYSTEM/ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL HELP TO BRING SOME
RELIEF TO THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. ON TUESDAY AS HIGHS DROP INTO THE
80S. IN ADDITION, THE HEAT COMBINED WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND
INCREASING WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING PACIFIC SYSTEM HAVE
PROMPTED A CRITICAL RISK OF FIRE WEATHER FROM THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN TODAY. ANOTHER CRITICAL
RISK ALSO EXISTS OVER THE BLACK HILLS OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA GIVEN A SIMILAR SETUP WITH DRY CONDITIONS
AND INCREASING WINDS AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES. SOME VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY OVER THE
GREAT BASIN WILL BECOME A BIT MORE NUMEROUS INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES EASTWARD.
INCREASING MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND AN
ISOLATED INSTANCE OR TWO OF FLASH FLOODING. CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY BE DRY AND AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE-WISE
ELSEWHERE IN THE WEST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH HIGHS IN THE
90S FOR THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AND INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
AND 100S IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY WILL BEGIN TO
REBOUND ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD ALONG THE WEST
COAST IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING PACIFIC SYSTEM.
PUTNAM
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page