746
FXUS01 KWBC 030800
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EDT TUE SEP 03 2024
VALID 12Z TUE SEP 03 2024 - 12Z THU SEP 05 2024
...AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING
CONTINUE IN TEXAS AND ALONG THE GULF COAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...
...ONE MORE DAY OF LATE-SUMMER HEAT FOR THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S.
TUESDAY BEFORE FOCUS SHIFTS TO A BUILDING HEAT WAVE IN THE WEST
WEDNESDAY...
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PERSIST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF TEXAS AND ALONG THE GULF AND SOUTHEASTERN
ATLANTIC COASTS THIS WEEK AS VERY MOIST GULF AIR POOLS AROUND A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING THROUGH THE REGION. A
PASSING UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD
STORMS ONCE AGAIN TODAY (TUESDAY) OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS
WHERE A LOCALLY GREATER THREAT FOR SOME FLASH FLOODING WILL EXIST,
WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) OUTLOOKED FOR
THE REGION. FURTHER EAST ALONG THE CENTRAL TEXAS GULF COAST, VERY
MOIST, ONSHORE FLOW AIDED BY A STUBBORN COASTAL LOW AND CONTINUED
ROUNDS OF STORMS MOVING INLAND WILL BRING FURTHER HEAVY DOWNPOURS
THAT COULD LEAD TO SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL. A SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS BEEN INCLUDED HERE AS WELL AS WET
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FROM RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL
INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SOME ADDITIONAL INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING IN THE AREA. THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY, INCREASING STORM COVERAGE OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST AND POSSIBLY NORTH INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. ANOTHER SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN PLACE
GIVEN THE THREAT FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING.
STORMS WILL ALSO INCREASE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY, AND DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA.
FURTHER NORTH, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
TODAY. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH AN
ISOLATED THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING OVER CENTRAL IDAHO AND
SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY OF
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, HOT LATE-SUMMER TEMPERATURES, PARTICULARLY
OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. FORECAST HIGHS ARE INTO THE 90S,
WITH SOME UPPER 90S POSSIBLE FOR THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE WEST WILL HELP TO BRING TEMPERATURES
BACK DOWN TO AVERAGE WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID-80S.
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM,
PARTICULARLY OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. STORMS CHANCES WILL
ALSO SPREAD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ATTENTION IN THE MID- TO LATE WEEK WILL TURN TO A BUILDING
HEATWAVE OVER THE WEST. A STRONG RIDGE WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE
WEST COAST FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER-TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN TIER, WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY ALREADY BEGINNING TO CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER-90S AND LOW 100S OVER INTERIOR CALIFORNIA AND 100S
TO 110S IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THEN, ON WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES
WILL SOAR INTO THE LOW 100S OVER INTERIOR CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE
90S IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WHILE NOT AS HOT, MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR COASTAL AREAS TOO, WITH HIGHS INTO
THE LOW 80S FOR SOME LOCATIONS. HEAT-RELATED WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST GIVEN A
HEIGHTENED RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS, ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE
WITHOUT ACCESS TO EFFECTIVE AIR CONDITIONING. ELSEWHERE, MOST OF
THE EASTERN U.S. OUTSIDE OF THE THE SOUTH WILL BE DRY WITH
GENERALLY MILD TEMPERATURES. EARLY FALL-LIKE HIGHS IN THE 70S ARE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT NEW ENGLAND, THE MID-ATLANTIC, AND CAROLINAS.
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