347
FXCA20 KWBC 031943
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
343 PM EDT TUE SEP 03 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 03 SEPT 2024 AT 1945 UTC:
IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OVER MEXICO...A RIDGING PATTERN IS
PRESENT OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MEXICO...WHERE THE NORTHWEST IS
EXPERIENCING DRY CONDITIONS DUE TO A MORE POTENT RIDGE...AND THE
NORTHWEST IS SEEING A WEAKER RIDGE THAT IS ALSO PRESENT IN THE MID
TO UPPER LEVELS. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...A WEAK PERTURBATION IS
EXPECTED TO THE EAST OF TEXAS AND TAMAULIPAS...AND IT IS EXPECTED
TO PROPAGATE INLAND WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH IN
THE REGION. OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...MOIST AIR IS
BEING ADVECTED FROM THE EAST AND CONVERGING ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE
OCCIDENTAL. WITH THE EFFECTS OF DIURNAL HEATING...EXPECT
PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION ON TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...A TROPICAL
WAVE IS SKIRTING THE SOUTHERN COASTS OF JALISCO...COLIMA...AND
GUERRERO...AND INCREASED PRECIPITATION IN THOSE REGIONS ARE
EXPECTED DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE WAVE. TO THE EAST...ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY EARLY
TUESDAY. INTO WEDNESDAY...THE CIRCULATION OVER TAMAULIPAS
CONTINUES TO FAVOR PRECIPITATION IN NORTHWEST MEXICO. IT WILL BE
FAVORED BY INCREASING AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER ENTERING THE
REGION DUE TO AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE YUCATAN AND
GUATEMALA BY THURSDAY EVENING. ON FRIDAY...THE TROPICAL WAVE IS
EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL VERACRUZ AND CENTRAL OAXACA...AND EXTENDING
INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPERIENCE THE INCREASE OF PRECIPITABLE WATER AND CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION IS THE REGION ARE STILL POSSIBLE. ON
TUESDAY...MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IS EXPECTED FROM NORTHERN COAHUILA TO
NORTHERN TAMAULIPAS. THE CENTRAL SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL CAN
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-40MM...WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
MOUNTAIN RANGE CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM...EXTENDING TO THE
SIERRA MADRE DEL SUR. INCREASED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ON
WEDNESDAY...MAXIMA OF 25-50MM ARE EXPECTED FROM COAHUILA TO
CENTRAL NUEVO LEON AND TAMAULIPAS...AS WELL AS FROM SOUTH SONORA
TO NORTH DURANGO/SINALOA. EXPECT GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 20-40MM
FROM JALISCO/SOUTH NAYARIT TO CENTRAL OAXACA. THE TROPICAL WAVE
ENTERING CHIAPAS/TABASCO/CAMPECHE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-30MM. BY
FRIDAY...MAXIMA OF 20-45MM ARE EXPECTED FROM NUEVO LEON AND
TAMAULIPAS...AS WELL AS...FROM SOUTH SONORA TO JALISCO. THE
TROPICAL WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN SOUTHERN
VERACRUZ/OAXACA TO CHIAPAS.
IN CENTRAL AMERICA...THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO COME FROM
THE PASSING OF TROPICAL WAVES AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LLJ OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ON TUESDAY...A TROPICAL WAVE
IS FAVORING MAXIMA OF 15-30MM IN THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION...DUE
TO THE INTERACTION WITH THE ITCZ. AS THE TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE PROPAGATING WEST ON THURSDAY...MOISTURE IS LEFT BEHIND
AND ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED IN THE EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS...WHERE MOST OF THE MOISTURE COULD CONVERGE IN BELIZE...AND
EAST HONDURAS/NICARAGUA. SIMILARLY...FAVORABLE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION OVER PANAMA CAN FAVOR INCREASED PRECIPITATION IN COSTA
RICA AND PANAMA...WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF A TUTT IN THE UPPER
LEVELS THAT CENTERS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ON THURSDAY. THE
AFOREMENTIONED REGIONS CAN EXPECT GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 20-45MM.
BY FRIDAY...THE ARRIVAL OF A TROPICAL WAVE INTO HONDURAS/NICARAGUA
WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. OTHER REGIONS THAT CAN EXPECT
SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE BELIZE AND EL SALVADOR. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
FROM SOUTH NICARAGUA TO COSTA RICA CAN FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN GUATEMALA.
IN THE CARIBBEAN BASIN...A TUTT EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA TO THE
JUST NORTH OF COLOMBIA ON TUESDAY. THIS TUTT IS INDUCING A TROUGH
IN THE LOWER LEVELS AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED AT
APPROXIMATELY 70W BY TUESDAY EVENING. THESE FEATURES WILL FAVOR
DEEP CONVECTION OVER HISPANIOLA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN
REGION...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
HISPANIOLA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-30MM. THE WAVE WILL FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 15-30MM IN NORTHERN VENEZUELA AND HIGHER MAXIMA OF
20-40MM IN NORTHEAST COLOMBIA. ON WEDNESDAY..THE WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO FAVOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER JAMAICA...WHERE IT IS
EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE TUTT CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE TO
THE WEST...THE MAXIMA OVER JAMAICA IS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN
25-50MM...AND 20-40MM IN COLOMBIA. INCREASED AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN CUBA WITH THE PASSING OF THE INDUCED
TROUGH OVER THE REGION...WITH MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. BY FRIDAY...THE
WAVE IS EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...AND BEHIND IT...DRIER AIR
IS ADVECTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. IN NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA...MOISTURE IS CONVERGING IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND
VENEZUELA...WHERE EXPECT GENERALIZED AMOUNTS OF 20-45MM. IN
NORTHERN PERU AND AMAZONAS-BRASIL EXPECT THE ENTRANCE OF A DYING
COLD FRONT FROM THE SOUTH THAT WILL FAVOR INCREASED GENERAL MAXIMA
OF 15-40MM.
ACOSTA...(WPC)
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