192
FXUS01 KWBC 032001
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 PM EDT TUE SEP 03 2024
VALID 00Z WED SEP 04 2024 - 00Z FRI SEP 06 2024
...HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL TO SPREAD EAST FROM
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE GULF STATES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
...HEAT WAVE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND PARTS OF THE WEST COAST
THIS WEEK...
MUCH OF OUR UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL FOCUS OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE GULF COAST STATES THIS WEEK AS A
STATIONARY FRONT AND COASTAL LOW DRIVE MULTIPLE DAYS OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE SHORT TERM,
SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING COULD CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST,
WITH SEVERAL FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS NOTED OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU.
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS SHOULD DRY OUT TOMORROW MORNING AS A PASSING
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH SHIFT THE MAIN AXIS OF
RAINFALL EASTWARD TOWARD SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST. OWING TO A STEADY SUPPLY OF GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE FLOWING
INTO THE FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH, THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-5" (LOCALLY HIGHER) ALONG AND NEAR THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST THROUGH THURSDAY, WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY
IMPACTFUL FLASH FLOODING WHERE HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS MATERIALIZE.
STORMS WILL ALSO INCREASE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC COAST BY
TOMORROW, AND DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA.
FURTHER NORTH, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
TODAY. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH AN
ISOLATED THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING OVER CENTRAL IDAHO AND
SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY OF
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, HOT LATE-SUMMER TEMPERATURES, PARTICULARLY
OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. FORECAST HIGHS ARE INTO THE 90S,
WITH SOME UPPER 90S POSSIBLE FOR THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE WEST WILL HELP TO BRING TEMPERATURES
BACK DOWN TO AVERAGE TOMORROW, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID-80S.
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM,
PARTICULARLY OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. STORMS CHANCES WILL
ALSO SPREAD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
OUT ATTENTION TURNS TO A BUILDING HEATWAVE OVER THE WEST BY
TOMORROW. ON WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO THE LOW 100S
OVER INTERIOR CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE 90S IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. WHILE NOT AS HOT, MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED FOR COASTAL AREAS TOO, WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOW 80S FOR
SOME LOCATIONS. HEAT-RELATED WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST GIVEN A HEIGHTENED RISK FOR
HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS, ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE WITHOUT ACCESS TO
EFFECTIVE AIR CONDITIONING. ELSEWHERE, MOST OF THE EASTERN U.S.
OUTSIDE OF THE THE SOUTH WILL BE DRY WITH GENERALLY MILD
TEMPERATURES. EARLY FALL-LIKE HIGHS IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT NEW ENGLAND, THE MID-ATLANTIC, AND CAROLINAS THROUGH
THURSDAY.
ASHERMAN/PUTNAM
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