070
FXUS01 KWBC 040709
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
308 AM EDT WED SEP 04 2024
VALID 12Z WED SEP 04 2024 - 12Z FRI SEP 06 2024
...HEAT WAVE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND THE WEST COAST THIS
WEEK...
...HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR THE GULF
COAST STATES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING NORTHWARD OVER THE WEST COAST WILL
HELP TO EXPAND AND INTENSIFY A HEAT WAVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FORECAST HIGHS TODAY (WEDNESDAY) RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 100S TO MID-110S IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, THE MID-90S TO LOW
100S FOR SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA, AND THE MID-90S TO LOW
100S FOR PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES SOAR EVEN
HIGHER ON THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS INTO THE 110S FOR THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST, THE 100S TO NEAR 110 IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, THE
MID-100S FOR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA VALLEYS, AND THE LOW 100S FOR
PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WIDESPREAD HEAT-RELATED
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE AS THE THREAT FOR
HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS AND IMPACTS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. THIS HEAT WILL BE DANGEROUS TO ANYONE
WITHOUT EFFECTIVE AIR CONDITIONING OR SUFFICIENT HYDRATION. WHILE
NOT QUITE AS HOT, TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE PACIFIC COAST, WITH HIGHS INTO THE 80S FOR
MANY LOCATIONS.
HEAVY RAIN AND THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE GULF COAST STATES THIS WEEK AS A STATIONARY FRONT
AND COASTAL LOW DRIVE MULTIPLE DAYS OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. THE PLACEMENT OF THE ELONGATED
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN GULF WILL KEEP THE FOCUS FOR
THE MOST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
UPPER TEXAS GULF COASTS, AND POSSIBLY A BIT FURTHER NORTH INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. EXTREMELY MOIST GULF AIR WILL LEAD TO
VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS (UPWARDS OF 2-3" PER HOURS RATES) WITH
CONTINUED ROUNDS OF STORMS MOVING ONSHORE. FORECAST AREAL AVERAGE
RAINFALL TOTALS ARE IN THE 3-5" RANGE, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
OF 7"+ POSSIBLE, MOST LIKELY NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. A SLIGHT
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) IS IN PLACE FOR THE REGION
BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW GIVEN THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED INSTANCES
OF FLASH FLOODING. STORMS WILL ALSO INCREASE ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC COAST TODAY AND THURSDAY, AND DAILY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE COAST AND WIDESPREAD STORMS
AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN ACROSS TEXAS AND THE
SOUTHEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
80S. CONDITIONS WILL BE HOTTER SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN FLORIDA
WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 90S. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR
SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AS THE COMBINATION OF HIGHS INTO THE 90S AND
HIGH HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDICES IN THE 105-110 DEGREE
RANGE.
ELSEWHERE, MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. OUTSIDE OF THE THE SOUTH WILL
BE DRY WITH GENERALLY MILD TEMPERATURES. EARLY FALL-LIKE HIGHS IN
THE 70S ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT NEW ENGLAND, THE MID-ATLANTIC, AND
CAROLINAS THROUGH THURSDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE PASSING OVER THE
MIDWEST WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK UP INTO THE MID- TO UPPER 80S
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH/SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST TODAY, WITH THE GREATEST STORM COVERAGE AND CHANCE FOR
SOME MORE MODERATE RAINFALL IN THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS/ADJACENT ROCKIES. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PUSH FURTHER
SOUTHEASTWARD ON THURSDAY, BRINGING STORM CHANCES TO THE GREAT
LAKES, CENTRAL PLAINS, AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS/ADJACENT
ROCKIES. ONCE AGAIN, THE GREATEST STORM COVERAGE AND HEAVIER
RAINFALL WILL BE FOCUSED TO THE NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND TO
THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND ADJACENT
ROCKIES. SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES GIVEN MORE SENSITIVE SOILS FROM RECENT RAINFALL
AND OVER ANY BURN SCARS.
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