406
FXCA20 KWBC 041941
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
340 PM EDT WED SEP 04 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 04 SEPT 2024 AT 1940 UTC:
IN THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF MEXICO...CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR OFF-SHORE SOUTH TEXAS...FAVORED BY A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN COAST OF TEXAS...IN TURN...FAVORING A
POTENTIAL FOR ONSHORE FLOW INTO TAMAULIPAS-MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY.
WITHIN THE SAME CIRCULATION...DRY AIR IS BEING ADVECTED FROM THE
NORTH AND REACHING THE NORTHERN SECTOR OF COAHUILA AND NUEVO LEON.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE GENERAL RIDGING PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
EXPERIENCE SOME INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION IN THE
AREA. FURTHERMORE...THE GULF OF MEXICO REGION IS SEEING AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER ABOVE 60MM ALONG THE TEXAS-TAMAULIPAS SHORE. IN
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...THE MOISTURE FROM THE EAST IS
BEING ADVECTED INTO THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL...AND EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS WITH THE PASSING OF A TROPICAL
WAVE INTO SOUTHWEST MEXICO BY FRIDAY. THIS SAME TROPICAL WAVE IS
PROPAGATING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NORTH CENTRAL AMERICA
ON WEDNESDAY...AND EXPECTED INTO VERACRUZ AND CENTRAL OAXACA ON
THURSDAY. THE INCREASING AMOUNT OF PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT
THREE DAYS. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 25-50MM FROM CENTRAL COAHUILA TO SOUTH NUEVO
LEON/CENTRAL TAMAULIPAS...AS WELL AS FROM SOUTH
CHIHUAHUA...SINALOA...DURANGO...AND NORTH NAYARIT. SIMILAR AMOUNTS
OF 25-50MM ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN CHIAPAS...WEST GUATEMALA DUE
TO THE PASSING TROPICAL WAVE. FROM SOUTH NAYARIT...ALONG THE
SIERRA MADRE DEL SUR...AND INTO NORTH CHIAPAS...TABASCO...AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...EXPECT GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 15-40MM. ON
THURSDAY...THE PASSING WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-30MM FROM
CENTRAL VERACRUZ/CENTRAL OAXACA...TO CHIAPAS...AND
CAMPECHE/YUCATAN. THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL
SEE THE APPROACH OF TROPICAL WAVE THAT WILL BRING WITH IT MORE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...WHICH WILL FAVOR AMOUNTS OF 25-50MM FROM
BELIZE AND ALONG QUINTANA ROO. TO THE WEST...ALONG THE SIERRA
MADRE DEL SUR...INTO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL...EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. ON FRIDAY...THE CONTINUING CIRCULATION OFFSHORE
TEXAS AND TAMAULIPAS WILL FAVOR THE ONSHORE FLOW FROM TAMAULIPAS
TO NORTHERN VERACRUZ...WITH MAXIMA OF 40-80MM. FURTHER
INLAND...EFFECTS FROM THE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE CAN FAVOR MAXIMA OF
15-30MM IN COAHUILA AND NUEVO LEON. THE PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL
WAVE IN WEST MEXICO WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-45MM FROM SOUTH
CHIHUAHUA...TO JALISCO. WHILE REMAINING MOISTURE IN SOUTH-CENTRAL
MEXICO WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 25-30MM. TO THE EAST...THE NEXT
TROPICAL WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 40-80MM IN THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO BELIZE...AND 20-45MM FROM SOUTHERN
VERACRUZ TO WEST YUCATAN...AND INTO NORTHERN GUATEMALA. MAXIMA OF
30-60MM ARE EXPECTED IN CHIAPAS AND SOUTHWEST GUATEMALA.
IN CENTRAL AMERICA...INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE ARRIVING TO
THE REGION...WITH THE ENTRANCE OF TROPICAL WAVES WILL BE FAVORING
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN EASTERN HONDURAS/NORTHWEST
NICARAGUA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED IN SOUTH COSTA RICA TO PANAMA WITH THE PRESENCE OF A
TROPICAL WAVE AND THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH OVER THE COUNTRIES. ON
THURSDAY...THE TROPICAL WAVE ARRIVES...WITH THE PRESENCE OF
ONSHORE FLOW FAVORING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE MOUNTAIN
RANGES IN CENTRAL AMERICA. THE WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-45MM
IN HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR...AND WEST NICARAGUA WITH A RISK OF MCS
FORMATION. AND CONTINUING WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE ITCZ FROM
SOUTHERN NICARAGUA TO PANAMA...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-30MM. MOISTURE
IN THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AFTER THE PASSING OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE. IN ADDITION...THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE
EAST...AS WELL AS...FLOW FROM THE WEST...CONVERGING ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...EXPECT MAXIMA OF
25-50MM IN EAST HONDURAS/NORTHEAST NICARAGUA. FROM GUATEMALA TO
WEST NICARAGUA...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. THE PRESENCE OF
MOISTURE AND THE ITCZ INTERACTIONS IN COSTA RICA AND WEST
PANAMA...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 40-80MM. LOWER AMOUNTS OF 20-45MM ARE
EXPECTED IN EASTERN PANAMA.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...TROUGHING IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WITH
THE INCREASE OF MOISTURE IN THE REGION WILL FAVOR PRECIPITATION
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ON WEDNESDAY...MOIST AIR FROM THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...AND MOISTURE ALONG A TROUGH IN COLOMBIA IS
FAVORING THE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE NORTHERN REGIONS OF
COLOMBIA. THE POCKET OF MOISTURE EXTENDS INTO
AMAZONAS-BRASIL...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE TO THE WEST AND
CONVERGE OVER THE REGION. INTERACTIONS WITH THE ITCZ IN NORTH
COLOMBIA WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED IN CENTRAL VENEZUELA DUE TO A TROUGH IN THE LOWER LEVELS
PROPAGATING OVER THE REGION. ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN COLOMBIA...TO
AMAZONAS-BRASIL...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-30MM. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
CONTINUE IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA...WHERE THE PRESENCE OF A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IN THE MID LEVELS...WILL FAVOR THE RISK OF MCS
FORMATION...AS WELL AS MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF
15-30MM ARE EXPECTED IN VENEZUELA...SOUTH COLOMBIA...AND INTO
NORTH PERU AS MOISTURE REMAINS FROM THE TROUGH IN THE LOWER
LEVELS. ON FRIDAY...THE PRESENCE OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO OVER MOST OF THE NORTHWESTERN REGIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...WHILE
AN ADDITIONAL BOOST IS EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTH AS A TROUGH ENTERS
THE REGIONS OF AMAZONAS-BRASIL...AND MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
CONVERGE OVER NORTHERN PERU. OVER THE WESTERN REGION OF
COLOMBIA...EXPECT MOIST ONSHORE FLOW TO FAVOR MAXIMA OF 30-60MM.
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE COLOMBIA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM.
WHILE FROM SOUTH COLOMBIA...NORTH PERU...AND AMAZONAS-BRASIL CAN
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
IN THE CARIBBEAN BASIN...MOST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT TO THE WEST CLOSE TO CENTRAL
AMERICA. THE TROPICAL WAVE PASSES OVER JAMAICA...WHERE EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 30-60MM ON WEDNESDAY...AS IT IS ASSISTED BY THE PRESENCE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND IN THE LOWER LEVELS IT IS ASSISTED BY
THE PRESENCE OF THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF THE LOW LEVEL JETS. CUBA CAN
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM WITH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE AND PRESENCE OF THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF A LLJ. ON
THURSDAY...FOLLOWING THE PASSING OF THE WAVE...DRIER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AND A DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO AN
INTRUSION OF DRY AIR. GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 15-30MM ARE EXPECTED
IN CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA. ON FRIDAY...DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE BASIN...WITH SMALL PLUMES OF
MOISTURE ADVECTING OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES. TO THE EAST...AN
APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO THE EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. MAXIMA OF 15MM ARE EXPECTED FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO
GUADALOUPE. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GREATER ANTILLES.
ACOSTA...(WPC)
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