932
FXUS01 KWBC 041946
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
346 PM EDT WED SEP 04 2024
VALID 00Z THU SEP 05 2024 - 00Z SAT SEP 07 2024
...HEAT WAVE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND THE WEST COAST THIS
WEEK...
...HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR THE GULF
COAST STATES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR A DANGEROUS HEAT WAVE TO EXPAND AND
INTENSIFY ACROSS THE WEST COAST THIS WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
OVERHEAD AMPLIFIES. AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK, TRIPLE-DIGIT
HIGHS WILL BE COMMONPLACE FROM SEATTLE TO PHOENIX, WHICH WOULD
CHALLENGE NUMEROUS HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST (INCLUDING THE SEATTLE AND PORTLAND AREAS) TOMORROW AND
FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD HEAT-RELATED WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ARE IN
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY AS THIS HEAT
WILL BE DANGEROUS TO ANYONE WITHOUT EFFECTIVE AIR CONDITIONING OR
SUFFICIENT HYDRATION. SOME RELIEF FROM THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT WILL
ARRIVE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS
WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST, ALTHOUGH DANGEROUS
HEAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.
ALONG THE GULF COAST, HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING REMAINS THE
MAIN WEATHER STORY THIS WEEK AS A STATIONARY FRONT AND COASTAL LOW
DRIVE MULTIPLE DAYS OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE REGION. THE PLACEMENT OF THE ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN
THE WESTERN GULF WILL KEEP THE FOCUS FOR THE MOST WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND UPPER TEXAS GULF COASTS,
AND POSSIBLY A BIT FURTHER NORTH INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. EXTREMELY MOIST GULF AIR WILL LEAD TO VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
(UPWARDS OF 2-3" PER HOURS RATES) WITH CONTINUED ROUNDS OF STORMS
MOVING ONSHORE. FORECAST AREAL AVERAGE RAINFALL TOTALS ARE IN THE
3-5" RANGE, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 7"+ POSSIBLE, MOST
LIKELY NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) IS IN PLACE FOR THE REGION BOTH TODAY AND
TOMORROW GIVEN THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING. STORMS WILL ALSO INCREASE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
ATLANTIC COAST TODAY AND THURSDAY, AND DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
ELSEWHERE, A BRIEF WARM UP FROM THE EARLY FALL-LIKE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST TOMORROW AND FRIDAY
AN AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MIGRATES EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST. ON THE
HEELS OF THE UPPER-RIDGE, AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL USHER
IN TRANSIENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST TODAY, WITH MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE STRONGEST STORMS THIS AFTERNOON COULD PRODUCE
MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS, WITH ISOLATED BURN SCAR FLASH
FLOODING ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TOMORROW.
ASHERMAN/PUTNAM
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