616  
FXUS01 KWBC 051900  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
259 PM EDT THU SEP 05 2024  
 
VALID 00Z FRI SEP 06 2024 - 00Z SUN SEP 08 2024  
 
...A HEAT WAVE TO CONTINUE ACROSS LARGE SECTIONS OF THE WEST AND  
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA...  
 
...RECORD HIGHS LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND  
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN  
CALIFORNIA...  
 
...HEAVY RAINS AND POTENTIAL FLOODING ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST  
INTO THE SOUTHEAST...  
 
..A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS TO SPREAD EAST FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE  
EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS..  
 
A LARGE MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND  
SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE A HEAT WAVE AFFECTING LARGE  
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN U.S. LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND.  
MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES LIKELY FROM THE WEST COAST, EAST  
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN, SOUTHWEST, ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN  
HIGH PLAINS, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 20  
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR  
CONTINUED RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY OVER  
PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN  
AND FOR RECORD HIGHS TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN  
CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY. EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING AND HEAT  
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT MUCH OF WASHINGTON STATE, OREGON,  
CALIFORNIA, FAR SOUTHERN NEVADA AND INTO SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. HEAT  
WILL ALSO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS SOUTH AND  
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WHERE HEAT ADVISORIES ARE ALSO IN EFFECT. WHILE  
HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ARE NOT  
EXPECTED TO BE AS ANOMALOUS AS ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE WEST,  
THE HIGHER HUMIDITY (DEW POINTS) WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS HEAT  
INDICES UP TO 112 DEGREES. THERE ARE APPROXIMATELY 66 MILLION  
PEOPLE UNDER A HEAT WARNING AND ADVISORIES ACROSS THE WEST AND  
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAT IMPACTS  
ACROSS THE WEST, THE DRY CONDITIONS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL  
ALSO SUPPORT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST  
INTO CALIFORNIA.  
 
WET WEATHER WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IN THE  
VICINITY OF A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS EXPECTED TO  
REMAIN IN PLACE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE GULF COAST AND ACROSS  
NORTH FLORIDA. MOISTURE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ANOMALOUSLY  
HIGH ALONG THE GULF COAST INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND  
FLORIDA. WAVES OF HEAVY RAIN ARE LIKELY IN THIS ANOMALOUS  
MOISTURE AXIS ALONG AND NEAR THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM  
LATE THIS WEEK, THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE  
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINS AFFECTING THE SAME  
GENERAL REGIONS WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF FLASH AND RIVER  
FLOODING. CURRENTLY FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS THE UPPER  
TEXAS COAST, EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND INTO FAR  
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI WHERE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE  
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  
 
THE ONLY OTHER AREA OF RAINFALL POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS  
ACROSS THE LOWER 48 WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A QUICK MOVING COLD  
FRONT THAT WILL PUSH EASTWARD TONIGHT FROM THE GREAT LAKES, INTO  
THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND  
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG  
AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, BUT THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT SHOULD  
KEEP PRECIP TOTALS FROM BEING VERY HEAVY. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BE  
SPREADING SOUTHWARD TONIGHT FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO  
THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SATURDAY. LESS FAVORABLE  
CONDITIONS FOR RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG THESE PORTIONS OF THE FRONT  
COMPARED TO AREAS OF THE NORTHEAST AND NEW ENGLAND, WITH ONLY  
LIGHT PRECIP VALUES EXPECTED. IN THE WAKE OF THIS COLD FRONT,  
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY FROM THE  
PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE EAST, PRODUCING EARLY FALL LIKE  
CONDITIONS ACROSS THESE AREAS.  
 
ORAVEC  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  
 
 
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