945
FXCA20 KWBC 051937
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
336 PM EDT THU SEP 05 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 05 SEPT 2024 AT 1940 UTC:
ON THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGING CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF MEXICO
AND SOUTH UNITED STATES CONTINUES...WHILE IN THE LOWER LEVELS THE
CYCLONE OFFSHORE TEXAS IS DEEPENING. ASSOCIATED TO IT IS A TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS INTO CENTRAL VERACRUZ...FAVORING CONVECTION ALONG THE
EASTERN COAST OF NORTH MEXICO. IN NUEVO LEON...TAMAULIPAS...EAST
SAN LUIS POTOSI...VERACRUZ...AND IN SOUTH
CHIHUAHUA..SINALOA...DURANGO...AND NAYARIT CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
25-50MM. IN ADDITION...THE PRESENCE OF LARGE AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS BEING ADVECTED ONSHORE
AND PROGRESSING UNTIL THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL. IN THE SOUTHERN
REGION OF THE COUNTRY...A TROPICAL WAVE IS PROPAGATING OVER
CENTRAL OAXACA AND VERACRUZ EXPECTED TO FAVOR MAXIMA OF 25-50MM
FROM SOUTHERN VERACRUZ INTO CENTRAL GUATEMALA. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL RISK OF MCS FORMATION IN PORTIONS OF THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC REGION. IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THE APPROACH OF A
SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. THE YUCATAN CAN EXPECT MAXIMA
OF 35-70MM IN THE EASTERN PORTION...EXTENDING TO BELIZE. THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-30MM.
SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE YUCATAN ON FRIDAY. BY
FRIDAY...THE TWO TROPICAL WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
SOUTHERN REGION OF MEXICO. THE NORTHERN PORTION WILL BEGIN TO SEE
DRIER AIR BEING ADVECTED FROM THE NORTH AS AN A NEW UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BEGINS TO PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 35-70MM...WHILE FROM
SOUTHERN PUEBLA/VERACRUZ...TO WEST GUATEMALA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
25-50MM. THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER SOUTHWEST MEXICO WILL FAVOR
AMOUNTS OF 20-40MM FROM NAYARIT...AND ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE DEL
SUR. THE PRESENCE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
WILL SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY TO THE WEST AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE
CIRCULATION TO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ON
SATURDAY. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL FAVOR
INCREASED PRECIPITATION OF 75-125MM ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF VERACRUZ. THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER SOUTHERN
VERACRUZ AND OAXACA...WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 35-70MM. THE TROPICAL
WAVE IN WESTERN MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO EXIT INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN
BY SATURDAY MORNING...WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-40MM IN JALISCO AND
COLIMA.
IN CENTRAL AMERICA...THE PRESENCE OF A POTENT TROPICAL WAVE IN
HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA ON THURSDAY WILL FAVOR THE INCREASE IN
AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE REGION...WHILE A MID LEVEL TROUGH
ACCOMPANIES THE TROPICAL WAVE...ASSISTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
DEEP CONVECTION. IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF CENTRAL AMERICA...THE
PRESENCE OF THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH ALONG THE PACIFIC COASTS OF
COSTA RICA AND PANAMA...MOIST ONSHORE FLOW IS ANTICIPATED TO
ENHANCE THE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE COUNTRIES. ON
FRIDAY...THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL FAVOR THE ONSHORE FLOW INTO
EAST NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...AS THE PASSING OF THE TROPICAL WAVE
HAS LEFT BEHIND MOISTURE IN THE REGION. SIMILAR TO
THURSDAY...COSTA RICA AND PANAMA CONTINUES TO SEE THE PRESENCE OF
ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE WEST AND WILL FAVOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION. BY
SATURDAY...A PERTURBATION IN THE TRADES OVER COLOMBIA MOVES TO
PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...ENHANCING THE CIRCULATION IN THE
REGION...AND INCREASING THE PRESENCE OF ONSHORE FLOW INTO CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN COSTA RICA...EXTENDING INTO NICARAGUA ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE COUNTRY. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...ON THURSDAY...THE
TROPICAL WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN EAST HONDURAS AND
NICARAGUA. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHWEST HONDURAS AND
EL SALVADOR WITH A RISK OF MCS FORMATION. FROM NICARAGUA TO
PANAMA...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-30MM. THE HEAVIEST OF THE THREE
FORECAST DAYS IS EXPECTED TO BE ON FRIDAY. MAXIMA OF 35-70MM ARE
EXPECTED FROM EXTREME EAST HONDURAS TO PORTIONS OF WEST COLOMBIA
AS THE CIRCULATION ENHANCES THE ONSHORE FLOW AND THE AMOUNTS OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE HIGH. AMOUNTS OF 15-30MM ARE
EXPECTED IN HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR. ON SATURDAY...THE PACIFIC
COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND WEST PANAMA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
35-70MM...WHILE THE CARIBBEAN COASTS OF COSTA RICA CAN EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 20-40MM.
IN THE CARIBBEAN BASIN...MODEL CONFIDENCE HAS BEEN LOW DUE TO WAY
THAT THE MODELS ARE DISAGREEING IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE MAIN
SYSTEMS IN THE REGION. A TUTT LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
IS EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE WITH
AN INDUCED TROUGH OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES...AND FOLLOWED BY A
TROPICAL WAVE TO THE EAST. THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO ANALYZE
AND RESOLVE THE EVOLUTION OF THE TUTT TO THE WEST AND TO HOW FAR
NORTH THE TROUGH AND TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE PROPAGATING ALONG SIDE
THE TUTT. EVEN SO...A GENERALIZED TREND THAT IS SHOWN IS ONE WHERE
THE TROUGHS HAVE A GENERAL NORTHWARD DIRECTION INTO THE LESSER
ANTILLES. OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH CHANCES OF DIURNAL EFFECTS PROMOTING LOCALLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
BY SATURDAY...THE TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED OVER THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS. OVER ALL...MAXIMA ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20MM OVER
THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...THE EVOLUTION OF THE ADVECTED MOISTURE
IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE REGION ARE NOT BEING CAPTURED BY ALL
THE MODELS. HOWEVER...A GENERAL PATTERN DEMONSTRATES THAT THE
MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO CONVERGE IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF COLOMBIA AND
IN ECUADOR AND NORTH PERU. SIMILARLY...THE INCREASED MOISTURE IN
NORTHERN COLOMBIA WILL FAVOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. IN WESTERN COLOMBIA...THE POTENTIAL FOR ONSHORE FLOW TO
FAVOR INCREASED AMOUNTS IS EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. ON THURSDAY...GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 15-40MM ARE EXPECTED
IN COLOMBIA...VENEZUELA...PERU AND ECUADOR. ON FRIDAY...A MAXIMA
OF 35-70MM ARE EXPECTED IN WESTERN COLOMBIA. MAXIMA OF 20-40MM ARE
EXPECTED IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND INTO NORTHWEST VENEZUELA.
ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15-30MM ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE OVER
THE REGION. A DECREASE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE CONTINENT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WESTERN COLOMBIA...WHERE
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM ARE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE IN THE REGION.
ACOSTA...(WPC)
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