284
FXUS01 KWBC 090751
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
350 AM EDT MON SEP 09 2024
VALID 12Z MON SEP 09 2024 - 12Z WED SEP 11 2024
...HEAVY RAIN AND A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE GULF COAST AND FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO MIDWEEK...
...POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HEAT FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND THE SOUTHWEST TODAY...
...ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS WELL AS AIR
QUALITY ALERTS REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ALONG WITH A GRADUALLY ORGANIZING AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO (LABELED POTENTIAL
TROPICAL CYCLONE SIX BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER) WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND THE RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING THROUGH MIDWEEK. FOR TODAY, THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS
ANTICIPATED OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS, THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST, AND MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY.
THIS MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS MAINLY
CONCENTRATED TO URBAN LOCATIONS. BY TUESDAY AND MORE PRONOUNCED ON
WEDNESDAY, INCREASED MOISTURE CONTENT AND ORGANIZED BANDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIX ARE
FORECAST TO REACH THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND CONSIDERABLE FLASH
FLOODING. AT THE MOMENT, THE GREATEST RISK FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP
TO 12 INCHES AND NUMEROUS FLASH FLOODS ARE FORECAST THROUGHOUT
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND DAMAGING
WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM THE UPPER TEXAS COAST TO THE
LOUISIANA COASTLINE AS THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE
STRENGTH IN THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO BY MIDWEEK. RESIDENTS
SHOULD ENSURE THEY HAVE THEIR HURRICANE PLAN IN PLACE AND CHECK
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV FOR THE LATEST FORECAST.
DANGEROUS HEAT IS IN THE FORECAST FOR AT LEAST ONE ADDITIONAL DAY
FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST. HIGHS INTO THE
UPPER 90S AND TRIPLE DIGITS HAVE PROMPTED EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS
AND HEAT ADVISORIES TO BE ISSUED, WITH A COOLING TREND SET TO
COMMENCE BY MIDWEEK. THE COMBINATION OF ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES, DRY VEGETATION, AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ADDITIONALLY,
CURRENT WILDFIRES CONTINUE TO PUMP SMOKE INTO THE ATMOSPHERE OF
THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN, LEADING TO POOR AIR QUALITY. THIS SMOKE
IS ALSO FORECAST TO EXTEND EASTWARD IN THE MID-TO-UPPER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY,
CREATING NOTICEABLY HAZY SKIES.
ELSEWHERE, WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. AS HIGHS RETURN TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S,
WHICH EQUATES TO AROUND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. COOLER,
FALL-LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL KICKOFF THE NEW WORKWEEK THROUGHOUT
THE OHIO VALLEY AND EAST UNTIL TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
BY WEDNESDAY AS THE DOMINANT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IN PLACE SLOWLY
SLIDES EASTWARD TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
WHILE NOTABLE PRECIPIATION SHOULD BE MOSTLY SPARSE ACROSS THE
LOWER 48 OUTSIDE OF THE GULF COAST, A FEW AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT
UPSTATE NEW YORK TODAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DIVES ACROSS THE
REGION, WITH SOME STORMS POTENTIALLY CONTAINING DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ALSO FORECAST TO
SPREAD INTO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES AS A DEEP UPPER LOW
SWINGS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC.
SNELL
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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