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FXCA20 KWBC 091855
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
254 PM EDT MON SEP 09 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 09 SEPT 2024 AT 1845 UTC:
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS STARTED ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
TROPICAL STORM FRANCINE. FRANCINE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ON THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH NORTHEAST
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. EVEN THOUGH FRANCINE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
OFFSHORE NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER NORTHEASTERN TAMAULIPAS...CAUSING
RAINFALL TOTALS RANGING FROM 25-50MM INLAND IN TAMAULIPAS...UP TO
100-300MM ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF TAMAULIPAS. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST OFFICIAL ADVISORY BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC BASIN...THERE ARE A FEW LOW PRESSURES THAT
HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH. ONE OF TH BELOW PRESSURES
IS LOCATED NEAR 13N/53W...14N/42W...AND 13N/34W. THE LOW PRESSURE
AT 53W IS NEARLY STATIONARY BUT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE SLOWLY WEST.
WHILE THE ONE OVER 43W IS ALREADY MOVING SLOWLY TO THE WEST. THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AT 43W
WILL BE CAUGHT UP IN STRONGER STEERING WINDS TO THE
NORTH...SPEEDING UP ITS FORWARD SPEED AND CATCHING THE LOW
CURRENTLY AT 53W BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WORKWEEK.
A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY NEAR 72W WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN LATER TODAY INTO TUESDAY...AND WILL INTERACT WITH THE
PANAMANIAN LOW...ENHANCING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA...ESPECIALLY EASTERN NICARAGUA AND
PORTIONS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE...NEAR
97W IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS THIS WAVE
MOVES WEST IT WILL EVENTUALLY INTERACT WITH A BROADER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED OFFSHORE OF WESTERN MEXICO. THIS WAVE AND LOW
PRESSURE WILL CAUSE DEEP MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST OF
MEXICO...CAUSING SIGNIFICANT RAIN OVER THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
IN THE MID LEVELS...THERE IS A LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...THEN A WEAKER LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WEST TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...JUST NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. A BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE BAHAMAS. BY WEDNESDAY...THE MID LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST AND CENTER OVER WESTERN
CUBA...THE MID LEVEL LOW NORTH OF THE LEEWARDS WILL WEAKEN INTO AN
OPEN TROUGH WITH ITS AXIS OVER PUERTO RICO....WHILE THE MID LEVEL
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL STAY MEANDERING OVER THE AREA
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ACROSS THE UPPER LEVELS...THERE IS A TUTT
OVER THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO...A HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND AN ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND INTO BERMUDA...THERE IS ALSO A DEVELOPING
UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. BY WEDNESDAY...THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH OVER MEXICO WILL HAVE ITS AXIS OVER CENTRAL
MEXICO...THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL STRENGTHEN AND
CENTER OF THE CENTRAL GULF...THE TUTT WILL WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN
TROUGH WITH ITS AXIS NEAR PUERTO RICO...AND THE HIGH PRESSURE EAST
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL MOVE FURTHER EAST...INTO THE CENTRAL
TROPICAL ATLANTIC.
THE TROPICAL REGION OVERALL WILL HAVE NEAR TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL
MOISTURE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SMALL
AREA OF BELOW NORMAL MOISTURE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN....THE
REST OF THE CARIBBEAN WILL HAVE NEAR TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL
MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. OTHER AREAS SUCH
AS CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN MEXICO...AS WELL AS CENTRAL AMERICA WILL
HAVE ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE THROUGH MIDWEEK.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...THE AREAS WITH
MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
TAMAULIPAS...WITH OVER 100MM OF RAIN POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH TS
FRANCINE. HOWEVER...WESTERN MEXICO COULD OBSERVE UP TO 70MM. A
SFC TROUGH ACROSS THE LEEWARDS MAY CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER
THE ISLANDS...SOME AREAS COULD OBSERVE NEAR 25MM OR MORE ACROSS
ISOLATED AREAS...WHILE PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA COULD OBSERVE
NEAR 15-25MM WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE INTERACTION OF AN
APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE AND THE PANAMANIAN LOW...COMBINED WITH
THE ONSHORE FLOW OVER SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA...WILL CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT RAIN OVER COSTA RICA AND PANAMA...WITH RAINFALL OVER
15MM ACROSS A LARGE AREA...AND ISOLATED MAXIMA NEAR 40MM OR
HIGHER. OTHER SECTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO ARE
FORECAST TO OBSERVE 10-20MM WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF OVER 30MM.
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA WILL HAVE RELATIVELY MODEST AMOUNTS OF
RAIN. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING 05-15MM OF RAIN...WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN.
FOR TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
FRANCINE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LESS COVERAGE OVER NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO...BUT UP TO 100MM ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER A SMALL AREA OF
NORTHEASTERN TAMAULIPAS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS MEXICO...WESTERN MEXICO
COULD OBSERVE UP TO 70MM. CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN MEXICO CAN OBSERVE
10-20MM WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS...AS THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
COMBINES WITH THE OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AND THE UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH. SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA LOOKS A BIT
DRIER...BUT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE
DIRECTLY INTO EASTERN NICARAGUA...CAUSING UP TO 35MM OF RAIN.
COSTA RICA AND PANAMA ARE FORECAST MAXIMA UP TO 25MM...HOWEVER.
THE ANTILLES AND THE BAHAMAS WILL BE OBSERVING GENERALLY SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...CAUSING RAINFALL
TOTALS IN THE RANGE OF 10-20MM WITH ISOLATED VALUES UP TO
35MM...THOUGH THE BAHAMAS WOULD BE IN THE LOWER END OF THAT RANGE.
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA WILL OBSERVE AN INCREASE IN
PRECIPITATION...WITH THE MODELS FORECASTING GENERALLY BETWEEN
10-20MM AND ISOLATED VALUES TO AS MUCH AS 35-50MM...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND DOWNWIND FROM THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
MEXICO WILL OBSERVE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF RAIN SURPASSING 50MM...AS
THE MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH THE LOCAL TERRAIN AND THE UPPER
TROUGH. OTHER AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MEXICO CAN EXPECT
AMOUNTS OF 05-20MM...WHILE PORTIONS OF CHIAPAS COULD ALSO OBSERVE
UP TO 50MM ACROSS ISOLATED AREAS. CENTRAL AMERICA WILL OBSERVE
AMOUNTS OF 05-15MM WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND
35MM...HOWEVER...ONSHORE FLOW OVER PANAMA WILL CAUSE A WIDESPREAD
AREA OF UP TO 40MM OF RAIN ACROSS WESTERN PANAMA. ONCE AGAIN THE
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS WILL OBSERVE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH RAIN TOTALS UP TO 10 MM IN MANY
AREAS BUT ISOLATED TO 25-35 OVER HISPANIOLA. THE BAHAMAS WILL BE
SPLIT...NORTHERN BAHAMAS COULD OBSERVE AS MUCH AS 25MM OF
RAIN...WHILE THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AS WELL AS THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ARE FORECAST VERY LITTLE RAINFALL. NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA ARE
FORECAST NEAR 10-20MM WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 50MM...ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND A FEW SECTORS OF VENEZUELA.
ALAMO...(WPC)
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