823
FXUS01 KWBC 092021
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
420 PM EDT MON SEP 09 2024
VALID 00Z TUE SEP 10 2024 - 00Z THU SEP 12 2024
...HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
GULF COAST AS FRANCINE APPROACHES BY MIDWEEK...
...ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WEST AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
TROPICAL CYCLONE FRANCINE HAS FORMED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES FOR THE STORM. A
STATIONARY FRONT IS DRAPED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AS
WELL. THE TROPICAL SYSTEM AND DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT WILL BRING THREATS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL, FLASH FLOODING,
AND STRONG WINDS TO PARTS OF THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL
2/4) IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS
COASTLINE ON TUESDAY AND A MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
(LEVEL 3/4) IN EFFECT ACROSS LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI ON
WEDNESDAY. SOME AREAS COULD SEE GREATER THAN 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS. WINDS WILL ALSO BE A FACTOR AS FRANCINE
APPROACHES, THERE IS AN INCREASING RISK OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS
IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS ALSO AN
INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE INUNDATION
FOR PORTIONS OF THE UPPER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTLINES. THOSE IN
THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS AND FOLLOW ADVICE FROM LOCAL
OFFICIALS. SEE THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER'S LATEST ADVISORY FOR
MORE INFORMATION ON FRANCINE.
THE HEAT OUT WEST SHOULD START TO RELAX FROM RECORD BREAKING HIGH
TEMPERATURES AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND A COUPLE OF SURFACE
FRONTAL SYSTEMS APPROACH THE PACIFIC COAST. BY WEDNESDAY, THE
HIGHS IN THE WEST SHOULD DROP FROM THE 90S AND 80S TO THE 70S AND
60S. HOWEVER, THE FIRE DANGER WILL BE ON THE RISE IN THE WEST WITH
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED AN AREA OF ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER OVER AREAS IN THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING MAY
OCCUR WITH ANY LOCALLY HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS.
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT BASIN WILL SEE WARM TEMPERATURES
SHIFT WESTWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND AS MUCH AS 15 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE AS MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOW TO MIDDLE 90S.
THE TEMPERATURES IN THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO
MODIFY AS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO LEAVE THE AREA AND RIDGING BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. THE HIGHS WILL REACH THE MIDDLE 80S TO LOW 90S
ACROSS MOST OF THESE AREAS AND TREND SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
WILDER
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