306
FXUS01 KWBC 100756
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
355 AM EDT TUE SEP 10 2024
VALID 12Z TUE SEP 10 2024 - 12Z THU SEP 12 2024
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AS WELL
AS THE RISK OF CONSIDERABLE FLASH FLOODING ARE FORECAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA ON WEDNESDAY AS FRANCINE APPROACHES...
...HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TO IMPACT PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY
MIDWEEK...
...ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING TROPICAL STORM FRANCINE CONTINUES
CHURNING IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
BROWNSVILLE, TEXAS AND MOVING ON A GRADUAL NORTHWARD MOTION.
FRANCINE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE BEFORE AN
EXPECTED LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN LOUISIANA ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND EVENTUALLY PUSHES
INLAND ACROSS LOUISIANA, AN INCREASED THREAT OF LIFE-THREATENING
STORM SURGE, HURRICANE-FORE WINDS, AND CONSIDERABLE FLASH FLOODING
IS ANTICIPATED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES, WITH LOCAL
AMOUNTS UP TO 12 INCHES ARE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRANCINE IS THEN FORECAST TO CONTINUE ITS TREK NORTHWARD INTO THE
MID-SOUTH ON THURSDAY, WHILE QUICKLY WEAKENING. HOWEVER,
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS ARE POSSIBLE
INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE NEIGHBORING REGIONS. A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM THE CENTER OF THE STORM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WILL ALSO FOCUS AREAS OF NUMEROUS, SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF CONTAINING INTENSE RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND CENTRAL GULF COAST. RESIDENTS ARE REMINDED TO REMAIN
WEATHER-READY AND NEVER DRIVE ACROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS.
THE ONLY OTHER SECTION OF THE LOWER 48 EXPECTING CHANCES FOR HEAVY
RAIN THROUGH MIDWEEK ARE PARTS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AS A DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL LOW CROSSES OVER THE REGION. A FEW INCHES OF RAINFALL
THROUGHOUT NORTHWEST MONTANA COULD LEAD TO AN INCREASED RISK OF
FLASH FLOODING ON WEDNESDAY, WHICH HAS PROMPTED A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL ALSO
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND LEAD TO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SPECIFICALLY, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
HAS ISSUED A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEVADA AND
WESTERN UTAH. CURRENT AND CONTINUED WILDFIRE ACTIVITY OVER THE
GREAT BASIN WILL FURTHER ADD TO THE SMOKEY SKIES NOTICEABLE
THROUGHOUT THE NORTHERN PLAINS, MIDWEST, AND PARTS OF THE
OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE AVERAGE AND INTO
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS LEVELS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND THE SOUTHWEST TODAY BEFORE A QUICK COOLDOWN COMMENCES BY
MIDWEEK. MEANWHILE, UPPER RIDGING IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MORE SUMMER-LIKE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO
THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S AS FAR NORTH AS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER MIDWEST BY THURSDAY. THESE TEMPERATURES EQUATE TO AROUND 10
TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE, BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BREAK MANY
DAILY RECORDS.
SNELL
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