107
FXSA20 KWBC 101841
PMDSA
SOUTH AMERICA FORECAST DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
240 PM EDT TUE SEP 10 2024
GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/
SOUTH AMERICAN FORECAST BULLETIN FOR 10 SEP 2024 AT 1900 UTC:
A POSITIVELY TILTED MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED BETWEEN
45S-60W AND 35S-73W. AS IT PROPAGATES TO THE NORTHEAST...THE UPPER
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FAVORING ASCENTS IN ITS EASTERN
SIDE...ASSISTED BY THE UPPER LEVEL JET. CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED
IN THE OFF SHORE NORTH PATAGONIA. THIS IS FAVORING THE
ORGANIZATION OF A FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE INTO THE
TROPICAL PORTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA BY THURSDAY. BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM SAN JUAN-ARGENTINA TO
NORTH OF BUENOS AIRES. THE REGION IS EXPECTED A MODERATE RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE PRESENCE OF DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVELS. ON WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE
POSITIONED FROM CENTRAL BOLIVIA...THROUGH CENTRAL PARAGUAY...INTO
MISIONES-ARGENTINA...AND PARTS OF RIO GRANDE DO SUL. THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER HAS DECREASED TO A SLIGHT CHANCE
FROM NORTHEAST ARGENTINA...INTO SOUTH PARAGUAY...AND WEST RIO
GRANDE DO SUL. ON THURSDAY...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STATIONARY FROM CENTRAL BOLIVIA...INTO MATO GROSSO DO SUL...AND
EXTENDS SOUTH INTO RIO GRANDE DO SUL. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FRONT OVER BOLIVIA INTO EXTREME WEST BRASIL CAN EXPECT TO LOSE
DEFINITION THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THE CHANCE OF SEVERE
WEATHER INCREASED OVER SOUTH PARAGUAY AND NORTH RIO GRANDE DO SUL
WITH THE PRESENCE OF A SHORT TROUGH IN THE UPPER LEVELS. IN TERMS
OF PRECIPITATION...ON TUESDAY...THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PORTION
OF ARGENTINA...INTO URUGUAY CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. CENTRAL
ARGENTINA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON WEDNESDAY...SIMILAR
AMOUNTS OF 20-35MM ARE EXPECTED FROM NORTHEAST ARGENTINA...INTO
SOUTH PARAGUAY...AND RIO GRANDE DO SUL. MAXIMA OF 15-25MM ARE
EXPECTED IN URUGUAY AND EXTREME NORTHEAST CENTRAL ARGENTINA. BY
THURSDAY...AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE REGION WILL
FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-45MM FROM SOUTH PARAGUAY INTO SANTA
CATARINA-BRASIL AND SOUTH PARANA. WHILE MAXIMA ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW 25MM IN RIO GRANDE DO SUL. IN CENTRAL BOLIVIA...INTO
SOUTHERN PERU...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-20MM.
IN THE SOUTHERN REGION OF THE CONTINENT...THE ARRIVAL OF AN
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL FAVOR PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHERN REGION
OF CHILE...WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF A WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...AND SHORT WAVES TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE MID LEVELS. ON
TUESDAY...A TROUGH AND WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ADVECTS MOISTURE
TO FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-25MM WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW IN THE AUSTRAL
REGION OF CHILE. SOUTH MAGALLANES CAN EXPECT A CHANCE OF SNOWFALL
WITH MAXIMA OF 15-25CM. ON WEDNESDAY...A NEW FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ADVANCES INTO MAGALLANES CHILE...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM
WITH A CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SNOW. SOUTH MAGALLANES CAN EXPECT MAXIMA
OF 15-25MM WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW. AMOUNTS LESS THAN 15MM ARE
EXPECTED IN AYSEN. ON THURSDAY...THE FRONTS CONTINUE TO MOVE
FURTHER NORTH...AND A SLIGHT INCREASE OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER SOUTH CHILE. EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-30MM WITH A
CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SNOW FROM LOS LAGOS TO NORTHERN MAGALLANES.
SNOWFALL MAX OF 04-08CM ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTH MAGALLANES WITH THE
ADVECTION OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION.
ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CONTINENT...A POTENT
RIDGE CONTINUES TO FAVOR DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE MAJORITY OF
PERU AND INTO BRASIL. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TO THE NORTH INTO COLOMBIA...AND VENEZUELA...WITH THE
PASSING OF TROUGHS OVER THE REGION. PRECIPITATION VALUES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO EXCEED 15-25MM.
PALAVECINO...(SMN-ARGENTINA)
GALVEZ...(WPC)
ACOSTA...(WPC)
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