751
FXUS01 KWBC 102009
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
401 PM EDT TUE SEP 10 2024
VALID 00Z WED SEP 11 2024 - 00Z FRI SEP 13 2024
...HURRICANE FRANCINE IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL IN LOUISIANA ON
WEDNESDAY WITH HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE
AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL UP INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS THROUGH THURSDAY...
...A ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH HIGH-ELEVATION SNOW FOR
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...
...ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
GREAT BASIN AND PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS...
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DELIVER FINE AND PLEASANT
FALL-LIKE WEATHER FOR THE EAST COAST AND TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY,
THE THREAT OF A HURRICANE CONTINUES TO BE LOOMING ALONG THE
WESTERN TO CENTRAL GULF COAST. TROPICAL STORM FRANCINE CONTINUES
TO CHURN AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
NOT TOO FAR FROM NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
TEXAS. ALTHOUGH FRANCINE HAS NOT INTENSIFIED AS QUICKLY AS
EXPECTED SINCE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON, THE TROPICAL STORM IS FORECAST
TO GAIN STRENGTH AS IT MOVES OVER VERY WARM WATERS, AND REACH
HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE REACHING THE LOUISIANA COAST ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF
LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, HURRICANE-FORE WINDS, AND
CONSIDERABLE FLASH FLOODING DURING THE LATTER HALF OF WEDNESDAY
FOR THE LOUISIANA COAST ESPECIALLY NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE
THE EYE OF FRANCINE MAKES LANDFALL. FRANCINE IS THEN FORECAST TO
INTERACT WITH A COASTAL FRONT AS IT TRACKS MORE TOWARD THE NORTH
FURTHER UP THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THURSDAY AND QUICKLY
WEAKENS. FRANCINE'S INTERACTION WITH THE FRONT AND AN ASSOCIATED
UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAM WILL ALSO RESULT IN ITS GRADUAL LOST OF
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTIC AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND. THE HEAVY
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH FRANCINE WILL THEN SHIFT FARTHER AWAY
FROM FRANCINE'S CENTER, WITH THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING FOCUSING
FARTHER NORTH UP THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON
THURSDAY. FARTHER EAST FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE, STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE
OF CONTAINING INTENSE RAINFALL RATES CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND FORMING COLD FRONT. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES, WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 12 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL TO EASTERN HALF OF LOUISIANA AND
UP INTO MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THURSDAY. RESIDENTS ARE REMINDED TO
REMAIN WEATHER-READY AND NEVER DRIVE ACROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS.
MEANWHILE, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL BRING A ROUND OF RAINFALL FARTHER INLAND THROUGH TONIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING A ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH
HIGH-ELEVATION SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL LOW BRING A SURGE OF COLDER
AIR ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW INCHES OF RAINFALL THROUGHOUT
NORTHWEST MONTANA COULD LEAD TO AN INCREASED RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING LATER ON WEDNESDAY, WHICH HAS PROMPTED A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL ALSO
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND LEAD TO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SPECIFICALLY, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
HAS ISSUED A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEVADA AND
WESTERN UTAH. CURRENT AND CONTINUED WILDFIRE ACTIVITY OVER THE
GREAT BASIN WILL FURTHER ADD TO THE SMOKEY SKIES NOTICEABLE
THROUGHOUT THE NORTHERN PLAINS, MIDWEST, AND PARTS OF THE
OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS. AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS FORECAST FOR
PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE AVERAGE AND INTO
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS LEVELS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND THE SOUTHWEST TODAY BEFORE A QUICK COOLDOWN COMMENCES BY
MIDWEEK. MEANWHILE, UPPER RIDGING IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MORE SUMMER-LIKE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO
THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S AS FAR NORTH AS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER MIDWEST BY THURSDAY. THESE TEMPERATURES EQUATE TO AROUND 10
TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE, BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BREAK MANY
DAILY RECORDS.
KONG/SNELL
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