354
FXUS01 KWBC 110749
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
349 AM EDT WED SEP 11 2024
VALID 12Z WED SEP 11 2024 - 12Z FRI SEP 13 2024
...HURRICANE FRANCINE IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL IN LOUISIANA
LATER THIS EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS, LIFE-THREATENING STORM
SURGE, AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...
...A ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH HIGH-ELEVATION SNOW
FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...
...ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
GREAT BASIN AND PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS...
AMPLE ATTENTION IS ON THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TODAY AS HURRICANE
FRANCINE IS ANTICIPATED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN LOUISIANA THIS EVENING
BEFORE SPREADING IMPACTS NORTH TO THE MID-SOUTH THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. ONCE THE STORM PUSHES ONSHORE SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA
TONIGHT, LIFE-THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPACT PARTS OF THE STATE, INCLUDING THE CITES OF LAFAYETTE, BATON
ROUGE, AND NEW ORLEANS. HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS INCLUDE STORM
SURGE, STRONG WINDS, TORRENTIAL RAINFALL, AND A FEW TORNADOES.
WHILE THE STRONGEST WINDS AND PEAK STORM SURGE ARE EXPECTED TO
OCCUR CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF FRANCINE IN SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF LOUISIANA, THE HEAVY RAIN AND TORNADO THREATS ARE FORECAST TO
SPAN MUCH FARTHER EAST ALONG THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST,
INCLUDING SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI, ALABAMA, AND THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. IN TOTAL, FRANCINE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES, WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 12 INCHES FOR THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS RAINFALL
COULD LEAD TO CONSIDERABLE FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING. AS FRANCINE
PUSHES NORTHWARD INTO THE MID-SOUTH AND WEAKENS BY THE END OF THE
WEEK, ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AND COULD LEAD TO
SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. ADDITIONALLY, A LINGERING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
RESIDENTS UNDER HURRICANE-RELATED WARNINGS SHOULD FOLLOW ADVICE OF
LOCAL OFFICIALS, INCLUDING EVACUATION ORDERS, AND NEVER DRIVE
ACROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS.
A SEPARATE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL ALSO IMPACT THE NATION THROUGH THE
END OF THIS WEEK, WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS
IMPACTING PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.
THIS AUTUMN STORM WILL BE DRIVEN BY A DEEP UPPER LOW CROSSING FROM
THE NORTHWEST TODAY BEFORE CLOSING-OFF AND CHURNING OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES ON THURSDAY. MOST OF THE IMPACTFUL PRECIPITATION
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THE HIGH PLAINS ON
MONTANA. A FEW INCHES OF RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE FLOODING CONCERNS
THROUGHOUT NORTHWEST MONTANA, PROMPTING A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4)
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL BOTH TODAY AND THURSDAY. SNOW LEVELS
DROPPING TO AROUND 7,000-8000 FEET MAY ALSO CREATE HAZARDOUS
WINTER-LIKE CONDITIONS FOR THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF MONTANA IDAHO,
AND NORTHWEST WYOMING. THE OTHER ASPECT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH GUSTY WINDS AND INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
THROUGHOUT THE GREAT BASIN AND HIGH PLAINS. STRONG WINDS COMBINED
WITH DRY VEGETATION AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY ARE FORECAST TO BE
MORE PRONOUNCED OVER THE GREAT BASIN TODAY AND INCREASE THE
CHANCES FOR ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR. ADDITIONALLY, ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ALSO EXISTS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND IS
MOST APPARENT ON THURSDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE IN SPEED.
RED FLAG WARNINGS AND FIRE WEATHER WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED
THROUGHOUT 10 STATES BETWEEN CALIFORNIA AND NEBRASKA. OUTDOOR
BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED THROUGHOUT THESE REGIONS AND RESIDENTS
ARE REMINDED TO NOT GO NEAR ANY WILDFIRES AS THEY CAN SPREAD
QUICKLY.
OTHERWISE, A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL
AID IN PRODUCING TRANQUIL WEATHER FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO MUCH OF
THE EAST. WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
OVERSPREAD THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. BEFORE A WARMING TREND IS ALSO
NOTICEABLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY. HIGHS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, UPPER MIDWEST, AND GREAT LAKES ARE FORECAST TO
REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S, WHILE UPPER 90S EVENTUALLY
RETURN TO THE WESTERN HALF OF TEXAS AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
SNELL
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