738
FXSA20 KWBC 111947
PMDSA
SOUTH AMERICA FORECAST DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
346 PM EDT WED SEP 11 2024
GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/
SOUTH AMERICAN FORECAST BULLETIN FOR 11 SEP 2024 AT 1945 UTC:
AN ADVANCING FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST ARGENTINA..INTO EAST
ARGENTINA...AND CROSSES INTO THE BORDER BETWEEN NORTHEAST URUGUAY
AND BRASIL ON WEDNESDAY. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER TROUGH IS
LOCATED OVER MOST OF SOUTH AND CENTRAL ARGENTINA...WITH A JET
EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN REGION INTO URUGUAY. EXPECT FAVORABLE
UPPER DIVERGENCE CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF URUGUAY DURING THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...THE UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTHWARD...GIVING WAY FOR THE NORTHERN MOVEMENT
OF THE FRONT INTO CENTRAL PARAGUAY...MISIONES-ARGENTINA...AND RIO
GRANDE DO SUL-BRASIL BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE ARE OF MAXIMUM
DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH ARGENTINA
INTO SOUTH PARAGUAY...DUE TO THE PASSING OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS REGION CAN EXPECT
A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. MAXIMA OF 20-35MM
ARE EXPECTED FROM FORMOSA-ARGENTINA...SOUTH PARAGUAY...RIO GRANDE
SO SUL...AND URUGUAY. ON THURSDAY...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD AND FINALLY BECOME STATIONARY FROM
SOUTHERN BOLIVIA...INTO THE BORDER REGION BETWEEN PARAGUAY AND
BRASIL...AND EXTENDING INTO PARANA...SANTA CATARINA...IN BRASIL.
AND INCREASE IN MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL FAVOR AN
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION OVER REGIONS OF SOUTH
PARAGUAY...CORRIENTES...AND MISIONES...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF
30-60MM. THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER JET AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TOWARDS THE NORTH WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN DIFFLUENCE OVER
THE REGION OF SOUTH PARAGUAY INTO SOUTH BRASIL. WITH THE
PROPAGATION OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE...EXPECT ENHANCE DEEP CONVECTION...AND A
MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. THESE CONDITIONS WILL EXTEND INTO
RIO GRANDE DO SUL AND SANTA CATARINA...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF
20-45MM AND A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. BY FRIDAY...THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS IN SOUTH BOLIVIA AND PORTIONS OF
PARAGUAY/BRASIL...AND MOVES INTO SOUTHERN SAO PAULO. MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION INTO CENTRAL BOLIVIA...AND
EXTENDS INTO SOUTHEAST BRASIL. INCREASED DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL FAVOR INCREASED DIVERGENCE OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTH PARAGUAY...AND INTO SOUTHERN BRASIL. THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
WITH THE CONTRAST OF TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE IN THE REGION...AS
WELL AS THE AFOREMENTIONED CONDITIONS...EXPECT THE RISK OF
SEVERITY TO CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN
BOLIVIA...PARAGUAY...MISIONES...AND EXTREME SOUTH BRASIL. IN TERMS
OF PRECIPITATION...THE MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IS EXPECTED IN SOUTH
PARAGUAY...WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ABOVE
40MM...WHERE EXPECT A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. FROM
CENTRAL BOLIVIA...INTO NORTH PARAGUAY...AND NORTH RIO GRANDE DO
SUL...SANTA CATARINA...AND PARANA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM
WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CONTINENT...OF INTEREST IS ON
WEDNESDAY...WHERE AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL MAKE ITS WAY OVER
SOUTHERN CHILE AND SOUTH ARGENTINA...WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER
AMOUNTS OF BETWEEN 10-20MM ARE EXPECTED IN AYSEN AND MAGALLANES.
AS THIS PROPAGATES OVER THE REGION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION IN AYSEN AND MAGALLANES.
COLD AIR ENTERING WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FAVOR THE MIX
SNOW AND RAIN IN MAGALLANES ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM
IN SOUTH AYSEN AND NORTH MAGALLANES. EXTREME SOUTH AYSEN CAN
EXPECT AMOUNTS BELOW 15MM WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. ON
THURSDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ADVANCE NORTHWARD AND WILL FAVOR
PRECIPTIATION IN THE REGION OF SOUTH CHILE. THE AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE...AS SUCH...MAXIMA OF
15-20MM ARE EXPECTED IN AYSEN. TO THE SOUTH...COLDER AIR ENTERS
INTO MAGALLANES...WHERE SNOWFALL MAXIMA OF 05-10CM COULD BE
FAVORED. BY FRIDAY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME DRIER OVER
SOUTH CHILE AND TRACE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED.
ACOSTA...(WPC)
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