377
FXUS01 KWBC 120746
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
345 AM EDT THU SEP 12 2024
VALID 12Z THU SEP 12 2024 - 12Z SAT SEP 14 2024
...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM FRANCINE WILL SPREAD INTO THE MID-SOUTH,
TENNESSEE VALLEY, AND SOUTHEAST TODAY WHILE THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT SHIFTS EAST INTO ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
...A ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH HIGH-ELEVATION SNOW IN
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...
...ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXTEND ACROSS MUCH
OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN...
TROPICAL STORM FRANCINE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH EARLY
THIS MORNING INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AT THE SAME TIME SPREADING
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO LOSE REMAINING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATER TODAY AS
IT PUSHES NORTHWARD INTO THE MID-SOUTH AND CONNECTS WITH NEARBY
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES, WHILE STILL PRODUCING AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. TORNADOES WILL BE THE
MAIN SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD THROUGH TONIGHT, POTENTIALLY IMPACTING
PARTS OF ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ALONG A SLOW-MOVING
WARM FRONT. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR THIS REGION. THE GREATEST THREAT
FOR CONSIDERABLE FLASH FLOODING EXISTS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL ALABAMA, WHERE A SLOW-MOVING LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF CONTAINING INTENSE RAINFALL RATES COULD
LINGER FOR SEVERAL HOURS AND PRODUCE LOCALIZED TOTALS UP TO 10
INCHES. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE FROM NORTHEAST ARKANSAS
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TODAY.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE START OF THE WEEKEND, SHOWERS AND LOCALIZED
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEAST AS LINGERING TROPICAL MOISTURE AND STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES STAY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO
HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS OF RECEIVING WARNINGS AND NEVER DRIVE ACROSS
FLOODED ROADWAYS.
A POTENT STORM SYSTEM IS ALSO IMPACTING PARTS OF THE WEST AND HIGH
PLAINS AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES IN EASTERN MONTANA
TODAY. AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE STATE. GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO IMPACT EASTERN MONTANA AND FAR
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH HEAVY RAIN A POTENTIAL
WEATHER HAZARD IN CENTRAL/WESTERN MONTANA. ADDITIONALLY, COOL
TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES COULD
LEAD TO EARLY-SEASON MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL FOR WESTERN MONTANA AND THE
GREATER YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK AREA. THE OTHER ASPECT OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL CORRESPOND WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
HIGH PLAINS. WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE, WHICH COULD
RESULT IN A FEW POWER OUTAGES. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THE REGION AS DRY
VEGETATION AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY CREATE A RIPE ENVIRONMENT FOR
ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR. RED FLAG WARNINGS AND/OR WIND ADVISORIES
SPAN FROM SOUTHERN UTAH TO NORTH DAKOTA.
ELSEWHERE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST DRY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES INCREASED INTO THE 80S THROUGH
THE BEGINNING OF THIS WEEKEND. WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL ALSO BE
FOUND THROUGHOUT THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID-TO-UPPER 90S. CONVERSELY, BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL BE FELT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST TO END THE WEEK.
SNELL
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