974
FXUS01 KWBC 121907
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
306 PM EDT THU SEP 12 2024
VALID 00Z FRI SEP 13 2024 - 00Z SUN SEP 15 2024
...FRANCINE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN BUT REMAIN A HEAVY RAIN AND
FLASH FLOOD THREAT FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST
AND A TORNADO THREAT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST...
...SEVERE WEATHER ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY...
...AN ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT EXISTS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
QUARTER OF THE NATION, WHILE MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
SPREAD ACROSS THE PLAINS, UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, GREAT LAKES
INTO THE NORTHEAST...
FRANCINE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THURSDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI TO THE BORDER AREA OF ARKANSAS AND TENNESSEE.
THE STORM IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE APPRECIABLY AFTER THAT,
REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND AND EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATING BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. FRANCINE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
A HEAVY RAIN THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS ITS SLOW MOTION
HELPS TO FOCUS RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN SIMILAR AREAS FROM FAR
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS/FAR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI, FAR SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS/FAR WESTERN KENTUCKY, SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN TO
CENTRAL TENNESSEE, NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI, NORTHERN ALABAMA, WESTERN
GEORGIA, INTO NORTH FLORIDA. FLOOD WATCHES ARE CURRENTLY IN
EFFECT ACROSS THESE REGIONS, AFFECTING NEARLY 10 MILLION PEOPLE.
IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING POTENTIAL, THERE WILL
ALSO BE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL, ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE CENTER OF FRANCINE, ACROSS AREAS OF WESTERN TO CENTRAL
TENNESSEE, ALABAMA, WESTERN GEORGIA INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
NORTH FLORIDA. ACROSS THESE AREAS, THE LARGEST THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE FROM TORNADOES THAT OFTEN OCCUR ON THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST SIDES OF TROPICAL SYSTEMS. AS FRANCINE WEAKENS FURTHER
THIS WEEKEND AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES, ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS MAY BRING ADDITIONAL WET WEATHER FOR NEXT
WEEK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST HAS BEEN VERY
DRY RECENTLY WITH THIS AREA EXPERIENCING MODERATE TO ISOLATED
SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS. THIS WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING
SOME RELIEF TO THESE DROUGHT CONDITIONS LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT FORECAST TO PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL
PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS AREA MAY PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER WITH
HIGH WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE GREATEST THREAT, WITH A LESSER
THREAT OF TORNADOES.
WINDY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT ACROSS A REGION THAT HAS
BEEN VERY DRY WILL SUPPORT AN ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THREAT ACROSS LARGE SECTIONS OF THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND EASTERN GREAT BASIN. RED FLAG
WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT ACROSS THESE AREAS, AFFECTING
OVER 5 MILLIONS PEOPLE.
IN THE AREAS OF CLOUDS AND RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE NATION, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND. MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP FOR THE PLAINS, EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE GREAT LAKES, NORTHEAST AND NEW ENGLAND.
RECORD WISE, A FEW RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHWEST AND SOUTH TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
ORAVEC
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