446
FXUS01 KWBC 130745
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
344 AM EDT FRI SEP 13 2024
VALID 12Z FRI SEP 13 2024 - 12Z SUN SEP 15 2024
...FRANCINE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WHILE BRINGING A HEAVY RAIN
AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS...
...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.
AND NORTHEAST WHILE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST IN THE
SOUTHEAST AND WEST...
FRANCINE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY AS ITS LOW PRESSURE CENTER
MEANDERS EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM THE OCCLUDED SYSTEM WILL REMAIN PARKED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE STORM'S SLOW MOTION WILL RESULT IN MULTIPLE
DAYS OF HEAVY RAIN FOR THE SOUTHEAST, WHICH WILL CREATE A FLASH
FLOODING RISK. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL
2/4) TODAY FROM WESTERN TENNESSEE THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
ALABAMA TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GEORGIA, WITH AN EMBEDDED MODERATE
RISK (LEVEL 3/4) FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA.
FLOODING WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND
AREAS THAT RECEIVE TRAINING/REPEAT CONVECTION, AND LOCALLY
CONSIDERABLE FLASH FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WHERE
SOILS ARE ALREADY SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL. THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT WILL CONTINUE FOR THESE AREAS ON SATURDAY WITH
ANOTHER SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4). FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR
MUCH OF THE RISK AREA. IF YOU ENCOUNTER FLOODING, TURN AROUND,
DON'T DROWN. IT IS NEVER SAFE TO WALK OR DRIVE INTO FLOOD WATERS,
AND MOST FLOOD FATALITIES OCCUR IN VEHICLES. ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY WHERE THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUES A MARGINAL RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (LEVEL 1/5). SEVERE STORM HAZARDS MAY
INCLUDE A FEW TORNADOES OR SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
THE FLASH FLOOD AND SEVERE WEATHER THREATS ASSOCIATED WITH
FRANCINE WILL GRADUALLY DECEASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND THE
REMNANTS WILL BEGIN MOVING SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND STALL ALONG
THE GULF COAST ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO FORM ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST, WHICH WILL CREATE STORMY WEATHER FROM FLORIDA THROUGH THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
IN THE NORTH, AN OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF MONTANA
WILL PUSH FURTHER INTO CANADA TODAY AND SATURDAY AND WILL BRING A
WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW IN THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING, AND COLD
AIR WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW AND MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY THE
WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHEAST WILL PREVENT THE FRONT FROM MAKING SIGNIFICANT EASTWARD
PROGRESS, AND THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE ON SUNDAY.
IN THE WEST, A STRONGER PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
COAST LATER TODAY AND MOVE INLAND OVER THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BEGIN IN THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY
AND SPREAD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AS TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM
ILEANA SPREADS NORTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S. AND NORTHEAST, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO REACH
VALUES AS HIGH AS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S WILL BE COMMON FOR THE PLAINS,
UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES, AND NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD
COVER FROM FRANCINE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE FOR MUCH
OF THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY, THE
PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL USHER IN COOLER, UNSETTLED WEATHER,
AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ALONG THE WEST
COAST.
DOLAN
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