644
FXUS01 KWBC 132009
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
408 PM EDT FRI SEP 13 2024
VALID 00Z SAT SEP 14 2024 - 00Z MON SEP 16 2024
...FRANCINE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD
THREAT TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...
...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.
AND NORTHEAST...
... THE SOUTHWEST WILL SEE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND MAY
SEE ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING AS THE FORECAST REMNANT CIRCULATION OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE ILEANA APPROACHES BAJA CALIFORNIA ...
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FRANCINE CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER ARKANSAS AND
BRING STORMY AND WET CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST.
ADDITIONALLY, ATTACHED STATIONARY FRONTS TO THE CIRCULATION ARE
SERVING TO FOCUS LIFT AND MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING RAINS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY, AREAS
IN TENNESSEE, ALABAMA, AND GEORGIA ARE UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH A MODERATE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK
FOCUSED OVER NORTH-CENTRAL ALABAMA FOR ENHANCED FLOODING
POTENTIAL. NORTH FLORIDA WILL ALSO SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL. RAINFALL RATES COULD BE 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR IN THE
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH ENHANCED LIFT ALONG POST-T.C.
FRANCINE AND A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY, BUT THE REMAINDER OF
FRIDAY WILL SEE THE BIGGEST THREAT. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH A COUPLE OF TORNADOES
POSSIBLE DURING THE REST OF THE DAY FRIDAY WITH SOME SHEAR IN THE
ATMOSPHERE, BUT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL SEE GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS.
THE OTHER BIG STORY-LINE WILL BE THE HEAT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN U.S. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEXAS WILL SEE HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 90S AND SOME LOCATIONS COULD BREAK
DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE MIDWEST WILL SEE HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. THE CENTRAL U.S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR FOR CONTEXT. THE EASTERN U.S. WILL ALSO BE WARM WITH
HIGHS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE AND REACHING THE LOW TO MID 80S.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE COUNTRY, A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND BRING COOLER, SHOWERY CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.
THE SOUTHWEST WILL SEE MOISTURE ENTER THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WITH THE FORECAST REMNANTS OF POST-T.C. ILEANA MOVING NORTHWARDS
TOWARDS BAJA CALIFORNIA. A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS
FORECAST FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR NEW MEXICO AND ARIZONA
AS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ABLE TO DROP LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
BRING ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL.
WILDER
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