804
FXUS01 KWBC 140800
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EDT SAT SEP 14 2024
VALID 12Z SAT SEP 14 2024 - 12Z MON SEP 16 2024
...HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND, THEN THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL SHIFT
TO THE CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK...
...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO
THE WEST LATE THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH WINTRY
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AT HIGH ELEVATIONS...
...WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE CENTRAL U.S. AND
NORTHEAST; WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEST...
THOUGH IT IS NOW POST-TROPICAL, FRANCINE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. THE CENTRAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY SINK SOUTH TOWARDS THE GULF COAST WITH A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THIS WEEKEND, AND
TRAINING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL CREATE A THREAT FOR SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) FOR
PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS, TENNESSEE, MISSISSIPPI, ALABAMA, AND GEORGIA
TODAY AND SUNDAY. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF
THIS AREA, AND URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND AREAS THAT ALREADY
RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL BE MOST AT
RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING.
A SEPARATE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN ALONG THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST, WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM FLORIDA TO THE
CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TRACK NORTH ALONG THE
EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WILL BRING A HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH
FLOOD THREAT TO PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC. THERE
IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) FOR EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA ON MONDAY WHERE SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.
IN THE WEST, AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS
WEEKEND AS A STRONG UPPER LOW PUSHES A FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE
REGION. THE SYSTEM WILL NUDGE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY,
THEN MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, THE GREAT BASIN, AND THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM, AND THERE IS A BROAD
MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 1/4) IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN ON MONDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL ALSO USHER IN WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO FALL AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SIERRA NEVADA WHERE UP TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST/FOUR CORNERS REGION LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMS NORTH AHEAD OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
ILEANA.
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL HAVE A LARGE RANGE ACROSS THE
UNITED STATES WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL
U.S. AND NORTHEAST AND WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES UNDER THE
STRONG UPPER LOW IN THE WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 80S
AND 90S FOR THE CENTRAL U.S. AND NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY, WHICH
IS MORE THAN 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR SOME AREAS IN THE UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TODAY, THEN DROP TO 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE IN OREGON, CALIFORNIA, AND NEVADA BY MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE
50S WILL BE COMMON IN THE GREAT BASIN, AND HIGHS WILL LIKELY ONLY
REACH THE 30S AND 40S IN THE SIERRA NEVADA.
DOLAN
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