900
FXUS01 KWBC 142012
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 PM EDT SAT SEP 14 2024
VALID 00Z SUN SEP 15 2024 - 00Z TUE SEP 17 2024
...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
FRANCINE SLOWLY WINDS DOWN ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTH...
...A COASTAL STORM COULD BRING INCREASING WIND AND RAIN FOR THE
CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...
...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
HIGH-ELEVATION SNOW INTO THE SIERRA NEVADA AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
BEGINNING ON SUNDAY...
...WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE CENTRAL U.S.
AND NORTHEAST BUT WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE INTO
THE WEST...
A PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS EFFECTIVELY BLOCKED THE
NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
FRANCINE WILL CONTINUE TO DELIVER FINE WEATHER FOR THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE COUNTRY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE, THE REMNANTS OF FRANCINE
WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A
SLOW-MOVING FRONT NEAR THE GULF COAST, KEEPING A THREAT OF HEAVY
RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING INTO SUNDAY FOR MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI INTO
SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA. OVERALL, THE REMAINING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH FRANCINE WILL GRADUALLY BE PUSHED FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE
CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, WITH
THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING SLOWLY DECREASING OVER THE INTERIOR
SOUTH INTO MONDAY. THE EASTERN GULF COAST REGION WILL REMAIN
UNDER A MARGINAL RISK OF FLASH FLOODING THROUGH MONDAY.
MEANWHILE, THE SAME HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BLOCKED
FRANCINE'S TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM REACHING FARTHER INLAND WILL
BECOME INSTRUMENTAL IN PROVIDING AN ENVIRONMENT FOR A COASTAL
STORM TO FORM JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. UNDER THIS SLOW-MOVING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM, A
BROAD FETCH OF NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE FLOWING OVER THE
RELATIVELY WARM GULF STREAM OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. THROUGH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS
MONITORING THE POSSIBILITY FOR A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY
FORMING ON A STATIONARY FRONT TO ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS AS THIS SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTH TO
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD LAND. THIS SCENARIO WOULD BRING AN
INCREASING THREAT OF WIND AND RAIN FOR THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE
TIMING, INTENSITY, AND CHARACTER OF THIS SYSTEM, SO PLEASE
REGULARLY CHECK THE LATEST UPDATES ON THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
IN THE WEST, AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE AS A STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES A FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO THE REGION. THE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, THE GREAT BASIN, AND
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM, AND THERE IS A BROAD
MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 1/4) IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN ON MONDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL ALSO USHER IN WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO FALL AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SIERRA NEVADA WHERE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST/FOUR CORNERS REGION LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMS NORTH AHEAD OF TROPICAL STORM
ILEANA, WHICH IS FORECAST TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND
DISSIPATES IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINING OF THIS WEEKEND WILL HAVE A LARGE
RANGE ACROSS THE UNITED STATES WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL U.S. AND NORTHEAST BUT WELL BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SURGING INTO THE WEST WILL THE
ARRIVAL OF THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE 80S AND 90S FOR THE CENTRAL U.S. AND NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY,
WHICH IS MORE THAN 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR SOME AREAS IN THE
UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TODAY, THEN DROP TO 15 TO 25
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE IN OREGON, CALIFORNIA, AND NEVADA BY MONDAY.
HIGHS IN THE 50S WILL BE COMMON IN THE GREAT BASIN, AND HIGHS WILL
LIKELY ONLY REACH THE 30S AND 40S IN THE SIERRA NEVADA.
KONG/DOLAN
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