647
FXUS01 KWBC 151952
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
352 PM EDT SUN SEP 15 2024
VALID 00Z MON SEP 16 2024 - 00Z WED SEP 18 2024
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AND THE SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC ON MONDAY...
...UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER AND WELL BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO THE WEST WITH HIGH-ELEVATION WET SNOW IN
THE SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS...
UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL PRODUCE
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND SOUTHEAST, WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE REGION.
THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL
CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS,
ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
ON MONDAY, LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL PULL
MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC, PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE MOISTURE WILL AID IN CREATING HEAVY
RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. THEREFORE, THE WPC
HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS,
AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
ON TUESDAY, THE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND OFF THE
ATLANTIC. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC, PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. THEREFORE, THE WPC
HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER
PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN
WILL CREATE LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, AFFECTING AREAS
THAT EXPERIENCE RAPID RUNOFF WITH HEAVY RAIN.
MEANWHILE, A DEVELOPING UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER CALIFORNIA WILL
SLOWLY MOVE TO THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION BY TUESDAY
EVENING. THE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PARTS OF CALIFORNIA, THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AND THE GREAT
BASIN. ON MONDAY, OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA NEVADA
MOUNTAINS, WET SNOW WILL DEVELOP, WHILE RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF CALIFORNIA, THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, AND THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH TUESDAY.
ON MONDAY, AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES FARTHER INLAND, SHOWERS
AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE
EASTERN GREAT BASIN, CENTRAL ROCKIES, AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5)OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN, CENTRAL
ROCKIES, AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A MINIMAL
THREAT OF TORNADOES.
ON TUESDAY, AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION, THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVES TO
THE HIGH PLAINS. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS, CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE
HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A MINIMAL
THREAT OF TORNADOES.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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