735
FXUS01 KWBC 160752
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
351 AM EDT MON SEP 16 2024
VALID 12Z MON SEP 16 2024 - 12Z WED SEP 18 2024
...POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT WILL BRING WIND AND HEAVY RAIN
TO THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC...
...A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER AND WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE WEST WITH HIGH ELEVATION SNOW IN THE
SIERRA NEVADA AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS TUESDAY...
WHILE FRANCINE'S REMNANTS HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST, POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT HAS BEEN STRENGTHENING
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO BRING
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND
MID-ATLANTIC AND DANGEROUS COASTAL AND BEACH CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF
THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS. THE FORWARD MOTION OF
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT WILL BE SLOWED DOWN BY STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST, WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE
OF HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE CAROLINAS TODAY. FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE A CONCERN, ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN CAROLINAS WHERE THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS ARE FORECAST, AND FLOODING COULD HAVE
LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. THIS DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC,
BRINGING A THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE REGION
MID-WEEK.
IN THE WEST, A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION THIS WEEK. THE UPPER
LOW IS ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL
PUSH EAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TODAY AND INTO THE PLAINS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND GUSTY WINDS TO MUCH OF THE WEST. PRECIPITATION WILL
FALL MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE
SIERRA NEVADA AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO SEE SOME EARLY SEASON
SNOW. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR THE SIERRA NEVADA ABOVE 8000 FEET WHERE UP TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW
MAY FALL, AND WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST WHERE WIND GUSTS COULD EXCEED 45
MPH.
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN IN THE
LEE OF THE ROCKIES OVER WYOMING AND MONTANA, AND WILL BRING A
THREAT OF SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED THESE AREAS WITH A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (LEVEL 2/5), AND THE MAIN STORM HAZARDS
WILL BE SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PUSH EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE TOWARDS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A BROAD RANGE ACROSS THE UNITED STATES OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE DEEP UPPER LOW WILL RESULT IN WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK, WITH
THE COLDEST ANOMALIES OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND CALIFORNIA WHERE
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AS LOW AS 15-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ON
THE FLIP SIDE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
CENTRAL U.S. AND NORTHEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 80S AND 90S FOR THESE REGIONS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
ALSO FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC TODAY AND TUESDAY
DUE TO EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER, BUT TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THESE REGIONS BY WEDNESDAY.
DOLAN
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