222
FXUS01 KWBC 162004
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 PM EDT MON SEP 16 2024
VALID 00Z TUE SEP 17 2024 - 00Z THU SEP 19 2024
...POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AND
BRING GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY RAIN, AND EMBEDDED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
UP THE CAROLINAS INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...
...A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER AND WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE WEST WITH HIGH ELEVATION WET SNOW FOR
THE SIERRA NEVADA AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...
AS A PERSISTENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE FINE
FALL-LIKE WEATHER FOR THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE COUNTRY,
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT (PTC8) IS MAKING LANDFALL NEAR
THE NORTH/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER. ALTHOUGH PTC8 WAS ABLE TO
ACQUIRE SOME TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE
GULF STREAM, THE COOL AIR MASS THAT THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS
BEEN FEEDING INTO THE CIRCULATION OF PTC8 HAS KEPT IT FROM
BECOMING FULLY TROPICAL. NEVERTHELESS, TROPICAL MOISTURE HAS
CONTINUED TO OVERRUN THE COASTAL FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND
PRECIPITATE AS HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN OF NORTH CAROLINA JUST NORTH OF
WHERE PTC8 MAKES LANDFALL. A FEW TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED ON
EITHER ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THIS EVENING. FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN, ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
WHERE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS ARE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. PTC8
IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY INLAND NEAR THE NORTH/SOUTH CAROLINA
BORDER AND STEADILY WEAKEN AS A SWATH OF HEAVY RAIN OVERSPREADS
MAINLY ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA INTO PORTION OF SOUTH CAROLINA
THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY. THE REMNANTS OF PTC8 WILL THEN SPREAD
NORTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC LATER TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY
BRINGING A THREAT OF FLOODING RAINS BUT THE INTENSITY OF THE RAIN
IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DECREASE WITH TIME.
IN THE WEST, A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION THIS WEEK. THE UPPER
LOW IS ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL
PUSH EAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO
THE PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND GUSTY WINDS TO MUCH OF THE WEST.
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR PORTIONS
OF THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA NEVADA AND THE NORTHERN TO
SEE SOME EARLY-SEASON WET SNOW. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE SIERRA NEVADA ABOVE 8000 FEET
WHERE UP TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL, AND WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT INTO THIS EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST WHERE WIND
GUSTS COULD EXCEED 45 MPH.
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN IN THE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES OVER WYOMING AND MONTANA, AND WILL BRING A THREAT
OF SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED THESE AREAS WITH A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (LEVEL 2/5), AND THE MAIN STORM HAZARDS
WILL BE SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PUSH EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE FARTHER EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY WHEN
ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A SHARP CONTRAST ACROSS THE UNITED STATES
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE DEEP UPPER LOW WILL RESULT IN WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK,
WITH THE COLDEST ANOMALIES OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND CALIFORNIA
WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AS LOW AS 15-25 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. ON THE FLIP SIDE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
IN THE CENTRAL U.S. AND NORTHEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S AND 90S FOR THESE REGIONS. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC
TODAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER,
BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THESE REGIONS BY
WEDNESDAY.
KONG/DOLAN
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