189
FXUS01 KWBC 170721
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
320 AM EDT TUE SEP 17 2024
VALID 12Z TUE SEP 17 2024 - 12Z THU SEP 19 2024
...A COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC TODAY...
...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO
THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
A COASTAL LOW, PREVIOUSLY LABELED AS POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE
EIGHT, WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MOIST, ONSHORE
FLOW WILL SUPPORT PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC TODAY,
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT TODAY FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA.
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD DECREASE ON WEDNESDAY,
RESULTING IN A LOWER THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING. COASTAL FLOODING
WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ONSHORE WINDS
ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. BY THURSDAY, THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
TO SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BEHIND IT.
MEANWHILE, A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE IN THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, STRENGTHENING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES LATER
TODAY. STRONG, GUSTY WINDS AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST WITH THIS SYSTEM IN THE VICINITY OF THE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, AND THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED THIS AREA WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (LEVEL 2/5) WITH AN EMBEDDED ENHANCED RISK
(LEVEL 3/5) OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. SEVERE STORM HAZARDS
WILL INCLUDE DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY
OVER MONTANA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS IT'S FORWARD MOTION IS BLOCKED
BY HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN HEAVY
RAINFALL TOTALS THAT COULD CAUSE SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING IN PORTIONS OF MONTANA. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY PUSH EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
GRADUALLY LOSING STEAM, AND THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
DECREASE.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER. PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD FROM THE NORTHWEST TO
THE GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY, MAINLY FALLING AS RAIN,
BUT SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
INITIALLY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL IN THE WEST AND
MID-ATLANTIC AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE CENTRAL U.S. AND
NORTHEAST, BUT TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE AS WE
MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
DOLAN
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