733
FXUS01 KWBC 180730
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
329 AM EDT WED SEP 18 2024
VALID 12Z WED SEP 18 2024 - 12Z FRI SEP 20 2024
...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE IN MONTANA
TODAY...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST TODAY AND THURSDAY...
A STRONG OCCLUDED LOW WILL BRING HAZARDOUS WEATHER TO MONTANA
TODAY AS IT LINGERS OVER THE STATE. STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS. A SLIGHT RISK
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
MONTANA WHERE SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINTRY
PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. IN ADDITION TO PRECIPITATION HAZARDS, A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE CENTRAL LOW WILL RESULT
IN STRONG, GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH WIND WATCHES AND
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF MONTANA AND WYOMING WHERE
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 30-40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP 60 MPH. THE LOW
WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH INTO SOUTHERN CANADA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, AND RAIN AND WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX.
THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALSO PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH FRIDAY. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, AND THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (LEVEL 2/5) TODAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
POTENTIAL SEVERE STORM HAZARDS WILL INCLUDE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS,
LARGE HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
WILL EXPAND INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MID-MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO
VALLEYS ON FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TREK EAST.
ELSEWHERE, TWO COASTAL LOWS WILL SANDWICH THE CONTINENTAL UNITED
STATES, ONE MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST AND ONE MOVING NORTH
ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE WEST COAST LOW WILL BRING PRECIPITATION
TO THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING, THEN TO THE GREAT BASIN AND
CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL FALL
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT SOME WINTRY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SIERRA NEVADA. THE LOW WILL
WEAKEN ON FRIDAY, AND PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF. THE EAST COAST
LOW WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
THE MID-ATLANTIC, COASTAL NORTHEAST, SOUTHEAST, AND FLORIDA. THIS
SYSTEM WILL ALSO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS,
WHICH HAS PROMPTED SMALL CRAFT AND COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES ALONG
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
TEMPERATURE-WISE, THE WEST WILL EXPERIENCE WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE
PLAINS, WHILE THE CENTRAL U.S. EXPERIENCES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE PLAINS SYSTEM. HIGHS
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 60S AND 70S FOR MUCH OF
THE WEST, WHILE HIGHS IN THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST REACH THE 80S AND
90S. A FEW NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WHERE HIGHS WILL APPROACH 100 DEGREES. ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE OBSERVED IN THE NORTHEAST UNDER
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE OBSERVED IN THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST.
DOLAN
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