790
FXUS01 KWBC 221942
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
341 PM EDT SUN SEP 22 2024
VALID 00Z MON SEP 23 2024 - 00Z WED SEP 25 2024
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
SUNDAY...
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS ON MONDAY...
A SLOW-MOVING FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY
SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ADVANCES TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY ROUGHLY SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
TUESDAY EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN OVER
TWO AREAS. THE FIRST AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE OVER PARTS OF THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEYS. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEYS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE
ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING
AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
THE SECOND AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL
CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS,
ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
ALONG THE FRONT SHOWERS, STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEYS TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A MINIMAL
THREAT OF TORNADOES.
ON MONDAY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY FROM PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC, CENTRAL APPALACHIANS,
OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES, AND INTO PARTS OF THE MIDDLE/LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND
MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE OHIO AND MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS FROM MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND
A MINIMAL THREAT OF TORNADOES. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO
DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, OHIO VALLEY,
AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
ON TUESDAY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND NEAR
THE FRONT FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES, OHIO VALLEY,
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, MID-ATLANTIC, AND FROM THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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