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FXCA20 KWBC 241917
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
317 PM EDT TUE SEP 24 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 24 SEP 2024 AT 1920 UTC:
OF NOTE: THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS FOLLOWING TWO SYSTEMS ON
TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM HELENE IS LOCATED AT 19.5N AND 84.3W AS OF
1500 UTC...LOCATED EAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WEST OF CUBA
AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE
CUBA...AND YUCATAN PENINSULA REGION OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AND
FAVOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION AS IT IS ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AMOUNTS OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THE ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF CUBA...THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...AND EXTREME NORTH YUCATAN PENINSULA. TO THE NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM...IN THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
PROPAGATING TO THE EAST AND SOUTH...EXTENDING INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH THE TROPICAL STORM AND FAVOR
ITS NORTHWARD MOVEMENT. THE REACH OF THE FEEDER BANDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE FAR AND WIDE...OVER CUBA...THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND INTO
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THE FEEDER BANDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER AND THE
POSITIONING OF THE FLOW IN THE REGION WILL FAVOR MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE MOUNTAIN RANGES IN CENTRAL AMERICA...AND
INTO WESTERN CUBA OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. BY THURSDAY...THE
TROPICAL STORM HELENE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE UNITED STATES. THE
REACH OF THE FEEDER BANDS INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA ARE
EXPECTED BUT WILL BE WEAKENING BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. IN TERMS
OF PRECIPITATION...ON TUESDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 50-100MM IN THE
NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND EXTREME WESTERN CUBA...AND GRAND
CAYMAN ISLAND. MAXIMA OF 35-70MM ARE EXPECTED IN CAYMAN BRAC AND
LITTLE CAYMAN ISLANDS AS THE REACH OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TO THE WEST. SOUTHERN QUINTANA ROO...NORTH BELIZE...EAST
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA...AND JAMAICA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE MAXIMA OF 75-150MM ARE EXPECTED IN WEST CUBA...AND
MAXIMA OF 50-100MM ARE EXPECTED IN NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.
CENTRAL CUBA AND JAMAICA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM...WHILE THE
WESTERN STATE OF YUCATAN-MEXICO CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. BY
THURSDAY...WESTERN CUBA...AND QUINTANA ROO CAN EXPECT A DECREASE
IN PRECIPITATION AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWARD...WITH
AMOUNTS OF 20-40MM.
TO THE WEST...IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC...THE REMNANTS OF JOHN ARE
CENTERED AT 17.7N AND 100.6W AS OF 1800 UTC ON TUESDAY. THIS
SYSTEM IS CHARACTERIZED BY THE LARGE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER
IN THE REGION AND WILL BE FAVORING HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN GUERRERO
AND OAXACA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DUE TO THE LONG FETCH
ONSHORE FLOW...ENHANCED BY THE ITCZ LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF MEXICO...THE CONTINUAL FORCING OVER THE REGION IS
EXPECTED TO FAVOR THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION. ON TUESDAY...MAXIMA OF
75-150MM ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF GUERRERO AND
OAXACA. NORTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES AND INTO
MICHOACAN CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 35-70MM. THE EXTENT OF THE
WEAKENING SYSTEM WILL BE FELT OVER THE EJE VOLCANICO TRANSVERSAL
AND ALONG SOUTHERN VERACRUZ/PUEBLA...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF
20-35MM. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY...WHERE THE
MAXIMA OF 150-250MM ARE EXPECTED FROM WESTERN OAXACA TO EXTREME
EAST MICHOACAN. OVER IN THE EASTERN PARTS OF OAXACA AND INTO
CHIAPAS...MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 75-125MM. OVER
THE CENTRAL PORTIONS THE COUNTRY AND INTO NORTHERN CHIAPAS AND
SOUTHERN VERACRUZ EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ON THURSDAY...A
DECREASE IN MOISTURE COULD FAVOR A DECREASE IN THE AMOUNT OF TOTAL
PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN REGION OF MEXICO. MAXIMA WILL
STILL BE HEAVY OF MAXIMA OF 50-100MM FROM MICHOACAN TO WESTERN
OAXACA. A TROUGH IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 25-50MM
IN SOUTHERN VERACRUZ AND INTO EASTERN OAXACA...EXTREME WEST
CHIAPAS. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF JOHN WILL
REACH INTO PORTIONS OF SAN LUIS POTOSI AND SOUTHERN TAMAULIPAS
FROM THE EJE VOLCANICO TRANSVERSAL...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF
20-40MM .
ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AMERICA...THE PRESENCE OF THE ITCZ/MONSOON
TROUGH...AND A LOW LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION OF THE TROPICAL STORM OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL
FAVOR THE MOISTURE TO CONVERGE ALONG THE PACIFIC COASTS FROM
GUATEMALA...TO COSTA RICA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ON
TUESDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 35-70MM FROM THE GOLF OF FONSECA REGION
TO SOUTHWEST COSTA RICA. MAXIMA OF 20-45MM ARE EXPECTED FROM SOUTH
GUATEMALA TO WEST EL SALVADOR. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
AZUERO PENINSULA. ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
INTO THE GULF OF FONSECA REGION AND WESTERN NICARAGUA WITH MAXIMA
OF 40-80MM. ELSEWHERE ALONG THE PACIFIC BASIN OF CENTRAL
AMERICA...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. A DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH THE ABSENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL JETS OVER
THE REGION...AND A DECREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE. MAXIMA OF
20-40MM ARE EXPECTED IN EAST HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. ELSEWHERE
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA IS BEGINNING TO SEE A SHIFT IN PATTERN TO
MUCH WETTER CONDITIONS. THE PRESENCE OF MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGHS PROPAGATING ALONG THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE
ENHANCED BY A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL TUTT THAT IS EXPECTED TO
EXTEND FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES TO RORAIMA-BRASIL. THIS UPPER
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN WITH THE PRESENCE OF A JET OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...WHILE RETROGRADING OVER VENEZUELA AND
COLOMBIA BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE
EXPECTED AROUND 15-35MM OVER SOUTH VENEZUELA AND PORTIONS OF NORTH
BRASIL...AS WELL AS IN COLOMBIA...BUT HIGHER ISOLATED MAXIMA ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE ARRIVAL OF A TROPICAL
WAVE IN NORTHEAST VENEZUELA CAN FAVOR AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION
BY THURSDAY.
EASTERLY/TROPICAL WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 25/00 25/12 26/00 26/12 27/00 27/12 28/00 28/12
TW 17N 51W 52W 54W 56W 59W 62W 65W 67W 70W
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 51W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 17N. ON
TUESDAY...THE WAVE IS FORECAST OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
NORTH OF FRENCH GUIANA...WHERE TRACE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION
COULD BE EXPECTED. ON WEDNESDAY...THE WAVE IS EXPECTED OVER
NORTHERN GUYANA...WHERE EXPECT ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. BY
THURSDAY...EXPECT THE WAVE TO ENTER THE LESSER ANTILLES
REGION...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-30MM...WHILE SIMILAR AMOUNTS OF
20-35MM ARE EXPECTED IN TRINIDAD AND NORTH VENEZUELA.
ACOSTA...(WPC)
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