401
FXUS01 KWBC 241940
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
338 PM EDT TUE SEP 24 2024
VALID 00Z WED SEP 25 2024 - 00Z FRI SEP 27 2024
...TROPICAL STORM HELENE IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO HURRICANE
STRENGTH AND BRING LIFE-THREATENING IMPACTS TO FLORIDA AND THE
SOUTHEAST LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
...RAINFALL THIS WEEK MAY HELP RELIEVE DROUGHT CONDITIONS IN THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEYS, AND
MID-ATLANTIC BUT WILL ALSO POSE A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING...
...MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...
A DEEP AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY AND WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH TROPICAL
STORM HELENE BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TO PULL
TROPICAL MOISTURE AND HELENE NORTHWARDS INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE EASTERN U.S. AHEAD OF THIS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, WHICH WILL
BRING RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS,
TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEYS, GREAT LAKES, AND MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THOUGH BENEFICIAL FOR AREAS EXPERIENCING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS.
ALL ATTENTION WILL SHIFT TO TROPICAL STORM HELENE LATE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS IT APPROACHES THE UNITED STATES. HELENE IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AND BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT
REACHES THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA EARLY WEDNESDAY THEN
RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND BECOME A
MAJOR HURRICANE WHEN IT APPROACHES THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST ON
THURSDAY. THE RISK OF IMPACTS FROM LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE
AND DAMAGING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS CONTINUES TO INCREASE ALONG THE
COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE FLORIDA WEST COAST.
HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THAT
AREA AND RESIDENTS IN THOSE AREAS SHOULD FOLLOW ADVICE GIVEN BY
LOCAL OFFICIALS. HELENE WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN, WHICH WILL CAUSE CONSIDERABLE FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES ACROSS WESTERN CUBA. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN LOCALLY CONSIDERABLE FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF FLORIDA, WITH ISOLATED FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST, SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ADDITIONALLY, MINOR TO ISOLATED MODERATE
RIVER FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE LATEST UPDATES ON THIS SYSTEM.
IN THE WEST, AN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL
SUPPORT MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF THE WEST AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THESE REGIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE AS MUCH AS 10
TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. NUMEROUS RECORD HIGH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS/EARLY
MORNINGS, AND A FEW RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THURSDAY EVENING, WHICH
MAY PROVIDE A LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AND TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS
IN THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.
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