034
FXUS01 KWBC 290739
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
338 AM EDT SUN SEP 29 2024
VALID 12Z SUN SEP 29 2024 - 12Z TUE OCT 01 2024
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
...THERE IS A CRITICAL RISK OF FIRE WEATHER OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
...THERE ARE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN
CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWEST...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND
MOVE EASTWARD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY. A RICH POOL OF
MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY, AND
THEN THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL BE IMPACTED BY UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS TO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS/MID-ATLANTIC. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT
RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS/MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED
HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING,
WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE
MOST VULNERABLE.
ON MONDAY, THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CONTINUES, HOWEVER,
OVER A SLIGHTLY SMALLER AREA. ONCE AGAIN, THE MOISTURE AND
UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL AID IN PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/MID-ATLANTIC. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS
ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS
OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/MID-ATLANTIC FROM MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY
LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL
STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
MEANWHILE, A DRY FRONT WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. THE WARM AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE, STRONG GUST WIND, AND DRY FUELS HAVE
PROMPTED A CRITICAL RISK OF FIRE WEATHER OVER THE NORTH/CENTRAL
PLAINS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
MOREOVER, THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL
CREATE HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA AND THE
SOUTHWEST THAT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 90S TO 110S, AND LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S, PROVIDING LITTLE
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT OVERNIGHT. THE TEMPERATURES HAVE PROMPTED
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA AND
THE SOUTHWEST.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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