899
FXUS01 KWBC 291852
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
251 PM EDT SUN SEP 29 2024
VALID 00Z MON SEP 30 2024 - 00Z WED OCT 02 2024
...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS, BUT AN END IS IN SIGHT FOR THE RECENT VERY WET
PATTERN...
...RECORD HEAT TO CONTINUE ACROSS CALIFORNIA INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...
...AN ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FROM THE
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHWEST...
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW INITIALLY ACROSS THE OHIO TO
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE A HEAVY PRECIPITATION
PRODUCER OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS IT PUSHES VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD
AND BEGINS TO WEAKEN. AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ARE
EXPECTED ON THE EAST AND NORTHEAST PORTION OF THIS CIRCULATION
WHERE SUSTAINED LOW LEVEL EAST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN AN AXIS OF
MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE VALUES WILL IMPACT AREAS OF THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FROM WEST VIRGINIA INTO NORTHWEST VIRGINIA
AND FAR WESTERN MARYLAND. ACROSS THESE AREAS, ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE, WITH LOCALIZED TOTALS
APPROACHING 5 INCHES. THESE RAINS WILL BE FALLING ACROSS AREAS
THAT HAVE RECEIVED VERY HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
WITH SOILS SATURATED AND STREAM FLOWS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FROM
THESE RECENT RAINS, FLASH AND RIVER FLOODING WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
CONCERN, WITH FLOOD WATCHES CURRENTLY IN EFFECT ACROSS THESE
REGIONS. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THIS MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
WEAKEN AND PUSH OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE TUESDAY/EARLY
WEDNESDAY, BRINGING A PERIOD OF MUCH DRIER WEATHER FOR THIS AREA.
NO LET UP IN SIGHT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD HEAT ACROSS LARGE
PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. AN UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO RE-STRENGTHEN FROM CALIFORNIA
INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SOUTHWEST, SUPPORTING AN EXPANSION
OF MAJOR HEAT RISK CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF CALIFORNIA INTO
SOUTHERN NEVADA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY ACROSS THESE AREAS, SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES. EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY
IN EFFECT ACROSS WESTERN TO SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INTO FAR SOUTHERN
NEVADA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA, WHILE HEAT ADVISORIES
ARE IN EFFECT OVER PORTIONS OF COASTAL CENTRAL TO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THESE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES ARE
CURRENTLY AFFECTING NEARLY 21 MILLION PEOPLE.
AN ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE TODAY
INTO MONDAY FROM PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN/NORTHERN
ROCKIES, EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS. A FAST
MOVING STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THESE
AREAS WITH GUSTY WINDS BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THIS FRONT.
LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT, WITH THE
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND HIGH WINDS CONTRIBUTING TO THE
SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. CURRENTLY RED FLAG
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS THESE AREAS, AFFECTING OVER 3
MILLION PEOPLE.
ORAVEC
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