283  
FXUS01 KWBC 020740  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
339 AM EDT WED OCT 02 2024  
 
VALID 12Z WED OCT 02 2024 - 12Z FRI OCT 04 2024  
 
....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF  
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON THURSDAY...  
 
...THERE IS A CRITICAL RISK OF FIRE WEATHER OVER PARTS OF THE  
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/CENTRAL ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY...  
 
...THERE ARE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES OVER  
PARTS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWEST...  
 
A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE CENTRAL  
APPALACHIANS TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST MOVES EASTWARD TO THE  
NORTHEAST AND DISSIPATES. ON WEDNESDAY, THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE  
LIGHT RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES, CENTRAL  
APPALACHIANS, AND MID-ATLANTIC. THE LIGHT RAIN WILL END OVERNIGHT  
WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP  
OVER PARTS OF FLORIDA THROUGH FRIDAY.  
 
ON THURSDAY, TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL START TO BUILD OVER THE  
CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST AND FLORIDA. UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY OVER  
THE WESTERN GULF COAST AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE INTO  
PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL GULF COAST, PRODUCING MODERATE  
TO HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. THEREFORE, THE  
WPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL  
OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY  
MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE LOCALIZED AREAS OF  
FLASH FLOODING, AFFECTING AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE RAPID RUNOFF WITH  
HEAVY RAIN. LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF  
THE SOUTHEAST/SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.  
 
MEANWHILE, A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO PARTS OF  
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES AND  
SOUTHWARD TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THURSDAY EVENING. AS THE  
BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD, LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER  
PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EXPAND INTO THE UPPER  
GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY.  
 
FURTHERMORE, DOWN-SLOPE FLOW OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL  
ROCKIES WILL CREATE WARM AIR OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES,  
COMBINED WITH STRONG GUST WIND AND DRY FUELS, WHICH HAVE PROMPTED  
A CRITICAL RISK OF FIRE WEATHER OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES  
ON WEDNESDAY.  
 
MOREOVER, THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL  
CREATE HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE  
SOUTHWEST, RANGING FROM THE UPPER 90S TO 110S. LOW TEMPERATURES  
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S, PROVIDING LITTLE RELIEF FROM  
THE HEAT OVERNIGHT. THE TEMPERATURES HAVE PROMPTED EXCESSIVE HEAT  
WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND  
THE SOUTHWEST.  
 
RECORD-BREAKING HEAT IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST  
THIS WEEK. MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS  
NEAR SAN FRANCISCO, LAS VEGAS, AND LOS ANGELES. EXTREME HEAT RISK  
IMPACTS ARE FORECAST IN PHOENIX. REMEMBER, HEAT IS THE DEADLIEST  
WEATHER PHENOMENON IN THE U.S.! PEOPLE SPENDING MORE TIME OUTDOORS  
OR IN A BUILDING WITHOUT COOLING ARE AT AN INCREASED RISK OF  
HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS. VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SAFETY/HEAT AND CHECK  
LOCAL MEDIA AND GOVERNMENT WEBSITES FOR INFORMATION ON COOLING  
CENTERS.  
 
ZIEGENFELDER  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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