234
FXUS01 KWBC 031946
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
346 PM EDT THU OCT 03 2024
VALID 00Z FRI OCT 04 2024 - 00Z SUN OCT 06 2024
...RECORD-BREAKING HEAT REMAINS ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, WHILE ALSO BUILDING INTO THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY...
...STRONG WINDS AND DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FORECAST
THROUGHOUT THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN, NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST AS
UNSETTLED WEATHER DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN AUTUMN HEAT WAVE CONTINUES TO SIMMER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST AS
HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS. EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ABOUT 35 MILLION
RESIDENTS SPANNING FROM CENTRAL ARIZONA TO THE BAY AREA OF
CALIFORNIA, WHERE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO EXTREME HEATRISK IS
FORECAST DUE TO THE RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES. THIS OCTOBER
HEAT IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION INTO THIS WEEKEND AS
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING ANCHORS OVER THE SOUTHWEST. WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO SPAN INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. BY
SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS INTO THE 90S EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY. REMEMBER, HEAT IS THE
DEADLIEST WEATHER PHENOMENON IN THE U.S. AND IS STILL DANGEROUS
OUTSIDE OF SUMMER.
A POTENT STORM SYSTEM CROSSING TO THE NORTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL PRODUCE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND STRONG WINDS
FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
ENTER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRITISH COLUMBIA, CANADA ON
FRIDAY, WHILE SPREADING LIGHT-TO-MODERATE PRECIPITATION OVER THE
REGION. MEANWHILE, A REDEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ON THE LEE
SIDE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN
AS IT RACES EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE ATTACHED COLD FRONT WILL ALSO SPEED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES ON FRIDAY, BEFORE ENTERING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE PRIMARY WEATHER HAZARDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE FROM STRONG
WINDS AND DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HIGH WIND WARNINGS
AND WATCHES AS WELL AS WIND ADVISORIES STRETCH FROM SOUTHEAST
OREGON TO THE DAKOTAS, WITH MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND ROCKIES FRIDAY EVENING.
RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE ALSO BEEN ISSUED FROM MUCH OF THE GREAT
BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES AS DRY VEGETATION COMBINE WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY. EXISTING FIRES AND NEWLY
DEVELOPING FIRES COULD EXHIBIT RAPID GROWTH AND ERRATIC MOVEMENT.
THE REMAINDER OF THE LOWER 48 IS FORECAST TO ENJOY TRANQUIL
WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE AND A WEAK COLD FRONT INFLUENCE
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED
STATES. HOWEVER, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND FLORIDA PENINSULA
INTO THIS WEEKEND AS AN AREA OF UNSETTLED WEATHER DEVELOPS IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO ALONG WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
CONTENT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ALONG IMMEDIATE COASTAL REGIONS SURROUNDING THE GULF OF MEXICO,
INCLUDING PARTS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH SATURDAY.
SNELL
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