578
FXUS01 KWBC 050801
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EDT SAT OCT 05 2024
VALID 12Z SAT OCT 05 2024 - 12Z MON OCT 07 2024
...RECORD-BREAKING HEAT REMAINS ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, WHILE BRIEFLY OVERSPREADING
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST ON SATURDAY...
...STRONG WINDS AND DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FROM THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE
GULF COAST THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH MORE OF A FOCUS TOWARD THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA BY LATE SUNDAY...
A RECORD-BREAKING LATE-SEASON HEAT WAVE CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND
AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE REGION. FORECAST HIGHS
WILL ONCE AGAIN SOAR INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S OUTSIDE OF
IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS IN CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND INTO
THE 100S TO LOW 110S INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. NUMEROUS DAILY
RECORD-TYING/BREAKING HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE REACHED AGAIN FOLLOWING
DAYS OF NEW RECORD DAILY TEMPERATURES. HEAT-RELATED ADVISORIES AND
WARNINGS ARE IN PLACE AS THIS PERSISTENT LEVEL OF MAJOR TO EXTREME
HEAT REMAINS A DANGER TO ANYONE WITHOUT ADEQUATE
AIR-CONDITIONING/HYDRATION AND THOSE SPENDING GREATER TIME
OUTDOORS. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO
THE NORTH FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, HIGHS WILL TREND ABOVE
AVERAGE AGAIN FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE INTERIOR WEST BY SUNDAY,
WITH 70S INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES AND 80S FOR THE
CENTRAL GREAT BASIN. FURTHER TO THE EAST OVER THE CENTRAL U.S., A
BRIEF PERIOD OF UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING AND STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME HOTTER HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON
SATURDAY. FORECAST HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID-90S ARE UPWARDS OF 20
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE, AND SOME RECORD-TYING/BREAKING TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE HERE AS WELL. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING
COOLER, MORE SEASONABLE AIR ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO
THE 70S. THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL REMAIN HOT AND ABOVE AVERAGE
SOUTH OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S
FORECAST.
AS NOTED, AN UPPER-LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY ALONG THE
NORTHERN-TIER OF THE COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND WITH AN ACCOMPANYING
SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM. LEE CYCLOGENESIS EAST OF THE ROCKIES HAS
LED TO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER, WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT LEADING
TO WIDESPREAD VERY STRONG, GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. WIND-RELATED
ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS ARE IN PLACE FOR GUSTS UPWARDS OF 60-70
MPH THROUGH SATURDAY. IN ADDITION, VERY DRY CONDITIONS COMBINED
WITH THE GUSTY WINDS WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL ALSO BRING A
SIGNIFICANT RISK OF WILDFIRES. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
HIGHLIGHTED AREAS FROM NORTHERN COLORADO/SOUTHERN WYOMING INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A CRITICAL RISK OF
FIRE WEATHER (LEVEL 2/3). WIDESPREAD RED FLAG WARNINGS AND FIRE
WEATHER WATCHES COVER MUCH OF THE REST OF THE REGION DUE TO
WILDFIRE RISK. GREATER MOISTURE FURTHER EAST WILL LEAD TO SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOME MODERATE RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE, AND STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING WITH THE SYSTEM COULD LEAD TO
SOME MORE POTENT THUNDERSTORMS. A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
(LEVEL 2/5) HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
IN NORTHEASTERN WISCONSIN MAINLY FOR THE THREAT OF SOME LARGE
HAIL. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
INCREASING GULF MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST
AND EASTWARD ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH/WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS WEEKEND. WHILE STORMS MAY BE GENERALLY
ILL-FOCUSED FOR ANY POTENTIAL FLOODING THREAT, A COUPLE AREAS WILL
SEE A LOW BUT NON-ZERO RISK. MORE CONCENTRATED STORMS ALONG A
COASTAL TROUGH NEARBY THE FAR SOUTH TEXAS GULF COAST COULD LEAD TO
SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER FOCUS WILL BE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE CENTRAL
FLORIDA PENINSULA ON SUNDAY, WITH SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
POSSIBLE ALONG THE FLORIDA GULF COAST AND SOUTH FLORIDA. THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC) CONTINUES TO MONITOR THIS AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT, THOUGH IF
SOMETHING WERE TO DEVELOP THIS REMAINS MORE LIKELY AFTER THE
CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD INTO NEXT WEEK.
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