885
FXUS01 KWBC 070757
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
357 AM EDT MON OCT 07 2024
VALID 12Z MON OCT 07 2024 - 12Z WED OCT 09 2024
...HURRICANE MILTON CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF
OF MEXICO AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...
...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WELL AHEAD OF HURRICANE MILTON BRINGS THE
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND KEYS...
...RECORD-BREAKING HEAT CONTINUES EARLY THIS WEEK FOR CALIFORNIA
AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, WITH MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ALSO EXPECTED FOR THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND PLAINS...
HURRICANE MILTON CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO AND IS CURRENTLY FORECAST BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER (NHC) TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA GULF COAST ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WELL
AHEAD OF THE STORM AS ANOMALOUSLY MOIST TROPICAL AIR AND
INSTABILITY INCREASE ALONG A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. SEPARATE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THIS FRONT WILL FAVOR AREAS OF VERY HEAVY TO POTENTIALLY
EXTREME RAINFALL IN A CONCENTRATED FASHION ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY, WITH A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
(LEVEL 3/4) IN EFFECT. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS
INSTANCES OF URBAN FLASH FLOODING. A BROADER SLIGHT RISK COVERS
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FLORIDA COAST AS WELL AS THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF COAST FOR MORE SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. A
SLIGHT RISK IS ALSO IN PLACE ON TUESDAY AS ONE WAVE DEPARTS AND
AHEAD OF THE APPROACH OF HURRICANE MILTON, AS LOCALLY VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SOME SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE. PLEASE CONSULT THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORIES
FOR UPDATED INFORMATION ON THE EXPECTED TRACK AND IMPACTS FROM
HURRICANE MILTON AS IT APPROACHES THE FLORIDA GULF COAST MID-WEEK,
INCLUDING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS, AND A
CONTINUED THREAT OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND WIDESPREAD FLASH
FLOODING.
MEANWHILE, A RECORD-BREAKING LATE-SEASON HEAT WAVE CONTINUES EARLY
THIS WEEK ACROSS AREAS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT PERSISTS OVER
THE REGION. FORECAST HIGHS MONDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN SOAR INTO THE
UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING
AS HIGH AS THE LOW 110S FOR THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. HEAT-RELATED ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS ARE IN PLACE AS
THIS PERSISTENT LEVEL OF MAJOR TO EXTREME HEAT REMAINS A DANGER TO
ANYONE WITHOUT ADEQUATE AIR-CONDITIONING OR HYDRATION, AND FOR
THOSE SPENDING GREATER TIME OUTDOORS. NUMEROUS DAILY RECORD-TYING
OR RECORD-BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS
THE REGION. THE ONE REPRIEVE IS THAT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY DROP THROUGH THE WEEK BEGINNING ON TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS A
FEW DEGREES LOWER AND LESS HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS EXPECTED. A FEW
DAILY RECORD-TYING/BREAKING HIGHS STILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST THOUGH. WHILE NOT QUITE AS HOT, HIGHS ARE ALSO
TRENDING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOW 80S FOR THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES AND INTO THE MID-80S FOR THE CENTRAL
GREAT BASIN. THESE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO SPREAD EAST
OUT INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD THIS WEEK. FORECAST HIGHS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
ARE IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE
MID-80S FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS. FORECAST HIGHS HAVE CONTINUED TO
REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/TEXAS, WITH
MID-80S TO MID-90S EXPECTED.
ELSEWHERE, A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY, WITH A FEW STORMS LINGERING INTO
TUESDAY FOR DOWNEAST MAINE. FORECAST HIGHS WILL BE MORE SEASONABLE
FOR MUCH OF THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST FOLLOWING
THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. THE
SOUTH WILL BE DRY AND A BIT HOT ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT,
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID- TO UPPER 80S. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS ON TUESDAY HERE AS WELL AFTER THE
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S. A
SYSTEM ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES
TUESDAY.
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